The highly anticipated day of thoroughbred racing in the U.S. has arrived. The 151st Kentucky Derby is scheduled for a post time of 6:57 PM, just a few hours away from reveling in the spirit of old Kentucky. The rain in Louisville at Churchill Downs is expected to be heavier than originally forecasted, which likely means the horses will face slower, muddier tracks than typical.
This year’s lineup is shaping up to be quite intriguing. Unfortunately, Rodriguez, who was in fourth place, and Grande, assigned number 10, experienced injuries earlier this week that have sidelined them.
2025 Kentucky Derby
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Latest Odds | Morning Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | Bob Baffert | Martin Garcia | 13-1 | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neo Cos | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Flavien Plat | 46-1 | 30-1 |
| 3 | The Final Gambit | Brad Cox | Luang Machado | 15-1 | 30-1 |
| 5 | America’s Promise | D. Wayne Lucas | Nick Juarez | 12-1 | 30-1 |
| 6 | Praise Daytona | Yukimizu River | Christophe Lemer | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | Noriyuki Hori | Joao Molira | 10-1 | 15-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | Michael McCarthy | Humberto Rispoli | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | Ian Wilkes | Brian Hernandez Jr. | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | Whit Beckman | Joe Ramos | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | Brendan Walsh | Manny Franco | 37-1 | 20-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | Steve Asmussen | Irad Ortiz Jr. | 29-1 | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 18-1 | 20-1 |
| 15 | I’ll Make a Judgment | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 | 30-1 |
| 16 | Coal War | Ronnie Brisnet | Juan Vargas | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | Mark Cass | Jose Ortiz | 9-2 | 6-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 9-1 | 5-1 |
| 19 | A Lump of Gold | Ethan West | Jareth Loveberry | 28-1 | 30-1 |
| 20 | Owen Anomaty | Brian Lynch | Javier Castellano | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | John Silef | Flavien Plat | 17-1 | 12-1 |
When it comes to betting on Journalism, there are valid concerns about navigating a crowded field. Jockey Humberto Rispoli hasn’t faced a lineup this packed before. It’s conceivable he might struggle to maintain pace—especially around the ¼ pole. Still, he’s proved himself by winning all three stakes races he participated in, each against tough competition.
On the flip side, there’s potential for impressive performance. Carlin and Mopotyism’s progeny has raced five times, managing to win four after an earlier defeat. His remarkable victory at the San Felipe stakes showcased his skills, especially as he outpaced other contenders, including Baeza and Citizen Bull.
However, one shouldn’t underestimate that narrow victory at Santa Anita. The outing wasn’t as straightforward as it appears, especially given the challenging field. Rispoli’s win didn’t require pushing every speed button, but if he finds the right space during the Derby, he has a compelling shot.
Sovereignty, under Junior Alvarado, is trying to settle into the right pace, which could be crucial given past performances. However, with the history of limited winners from gate number 17 or higher, it may be tough for Bill Mott’s horse to secure a win without a fortuitous start.
It seems the Derby routinely involves a fast pace as horses jostle for position. This year, Citizen Bull appears to be setting the tone from the rail, and he excels in crucial moments, often making a strong push from the start. His speed figure at the Robert B. Lewis stakes was impressive, marking him as a strong contender.
Those looking for a closer may find an interesting option in The Final Gambit, who recently made waves at Turfway Park with a notable victory. He successfully navigated a muddy track, showing he can shine, even when conditions aren’t ideal.
Our Pick
Win: No. 8 Journalism. Assuming he exceeds 3-1 odds, he stands out as the best in terms of distance, provided he gets a smooth trip.
Trifecta Box: No. 8 Journalism, No. 18 Sovereignty, No. 21 Baeza, No. 3 Final Gambit.
