The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, May 3rd, at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
The favorite is No. 8 Journalism, currently at 7-2 odds, and it’s quite likely this horse will start as the top choice when the race begins.
Journalism has proven itself across a four-race streak on various tracks, culminating with the Santa Anita Derby on April 5th, and has a favorable post position at No. 8.
While it’s tough to find a standout candidate in a crowded field of 20 elite three-year-olds, the potential for unpredictability is certainly there.
One way to capitalize on this unpredictability is by placing bets on exotics like Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas, possibly including some underdogs.
There are a few contenders worth mentioning, with or without Journalism, that could sweeten the potential payouts for the Kentucky Derby Exotic.
2025 Kentucky Derby Picks: Horses for Exactas and Trifectas
No. 3 Final Gambit (15-1): This Kentucky-bred grey has raised plenty of questions, but it’s hard to overlook the appealing combination of odds, trainer, and recent race improvements.
Final Gambit hasn’t competed on dirt before, but with the backing of renowned trainer Bradcox and training at Churchill Downs, expectations are high. His last race showcased a significant jump in class, winning the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks against a field of 12 horses, which he finished ahead by three lengths while posting strong speed figures.
A further improvement here could solidify his chances in this race.
No. 7 Luxor Cafe (12-1): Luxor Cafe, a horse that has roots in Kentucky and Japan, has some intriguing aspects to explore.
However, there are noticeable challenges. Japanese horses have yet to claim a Kentucky Derby win, and this horse has never raced in the U.S. Furthermore, his jockey Joanne Molira is a newcomer to this race.
On the upside, he has notable stakes wins in Fukui and is a descendant of the Triple Crown champ, American Pharoah.
It seems there’s a growing trend leaning towards Japanese horses in the modern Derby landscape.
Similar to Final Gambit, Tiztastic is another Kentucky-bred horse that seems to be hitting its stride at the right moment.
No. 17 Sandman (5-1): As the third morning line favorite, Sandman should find the race conditions quite favorable. With ample speed within the field, he might get chances to overtake tired horses as the race progresses.
There are concerns about Sandman’s previous performances at Churchill Downs, which occurred when he was just two years old. Still, I wonder, could it be that those earlier results, plus the fact that no horse from post No. 17 has ever won, might see his odds soar to nearly double digits before post time?
No. 21 Baeza (21-1): Keep an eye on this horse’s odds on Saturday, as many seasoned bettors are eager to place wagers on Baeza, who entered the race after another horse was scratched.
Baeza, having closely trailed Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, could emerge as a strong competitor in this field—at least if he can navigate his challenging post position.
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Michael Lubov can be described as a dedicated sports bettor with over ten years in the gambling industry. His strategy is rooted in game theory, particularly in helping bettors find obscure bets and long shots across both mainstream and niche sports.
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