Americans seem to have adapted to the presence of self-driving cars. In places like San Francisco and Austin, people now easily call for Waymo robotaxis, much like how they used to request an Uber ride.
Now, think about applying that same concept to an 80,000-pound semi-truck cruising down the highway.
Many truck drivers–my peers–know the issue all too well. Current collision avoidance technology can be overly sensitive, reacting to things like shadows, varied weather, changing lights, and even animals.
It’s already happening. Major trucking companies are making significant investments in automated trucks. The nation is on track to replace traditional truck driving, one of the most common jobs in the U.S.
supermarket scam
Proponents of this technology argue that it’s a vital fix to the troubling truck driver shortage and claim it will enhance road safety. However, as I discuss in my new book, “The End of the Road: Inside the Battle with Truck Drivers,” neither assertion withstands careful analysis.
This hardly matters; the push for robotic vehicles isn’t genuinely driven by a pressing need. Instead, it reflects a massive marketing effort to familiarize us with a radical shift in our future—one that could infringe on the rights of all U.S. drivers. Think about the restrictive “motor laws” portrayed in classic songs. “Red Barchetta,” for instance, penned by musician Neil Peart, captures the essence of what freedom on the open road used to mean.
Waymo robotaxis are zipping around San Francisco and Austin, and test runs for autonomous trucks are already underway in Texas. Yet, this technology is still relatively unrefined and heavily relies on human supervision.
A recent sponsored piece from Aurora Innovation—which is at the forefront of developing autonomous truck systems—doesn’t touch on this fact. It appears almost seamlessly among real articles on Axios, claiming to explain “the link between self-driving trucks and food prices.”
The piece asserts boldly that “self-driving trucks could reduce food prices by cutting transportation costs and enhancing safety and supply chain efficiency.”
But the slick visuals and statistics gloss over a crucial point: trucking expenses make up only about 1% to 3% of a consumer product’s pricing. Over the past four years, a “cargo recession” has developed due to weak demand, oversupply, and declining interest rates. So, have you noticed prices on groceries dropping? I haven’t.
“Out of stock” scam
Aurora’s advertisement also invokes one of the main justifications pushed by advocates for self-driving trucks: the alleged driver shortage. This so-called “crisis” has persisted since the 1980s, with deregulation leading to lower wages and poor working conditions, creating high turnover rates. Now, it’s being leveraged to suggest that we might not even need truck drivers anymore.
The troubling part is that even within the trucking industry, many are no longer insisting there’s a driver shortage.
Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations, has stated that “the truck driver shortage has been resolved” shortly before a recent conference in Florida. As he told trucking media outlet CCJ Digital, “The real issue is more about driver quality than sheer numbers.”
This distinction is significant. Much like various sectors in our country, the trucking industry has been lowering its standards over time. Moreover, the Biden administration’s policies have opened the floodgates to an influx of undocumented immigrants, refugees, and potential asylum seekers, further complicating the situation for both truckers and everyday motorists.
Revoking questionable commercial drivers’ licenses and those issued to inadequately vetted new immigrants could dramatically improve road safety. Instead, declining standards are being quietly accepted, while automation is hailed as the solution. You don’t have to be overly conspiratorial to think that a more chaotic driving landscape may make it easier to market supposedly “safer” autonomous systems.
However, as noted, these “driverless” technologies still depend significantly on human oversight. For example, Aurora mandates a remote operator to supervise its trucks. In its July 2024 investor report, the company pledged to decrease the number of operators by increasing how many trucks each one oversees, pushing that number to an overwhelming 100.
Most people would find it tough to stay vigilant of all traffic conditions while driving just one vehicle, yet Aurora seems to be proposing that one person manage 100 tractor-trailers.
controller cowboy
And what skills are necessary for such a role? Anyone with a commercial driving license or real-world driving experience seems to be at a disadvantage. It appears that the job market is shifting towards gamers and flight simulator aficionados.
The same goes for the self-driving taxi sector. Waymo has acknowledged that they employ remote operators, including those based in the Philippines. Kodiak Robotics, which purportedly runs driverless trucks in Texas’ Permian Basin, is said to be adopting a similar approach. The state’s roads already resemble a “Mad Max” scenario; soon, they might start feeling more like “Grand Theft Auto: 18-Wheeler.”
To their credit, recently proposed legislation within the Build America 250 Act would stipulate that remote operators must have a driver’s license and be located in the U.S. Whether that provision survives the intense lobbying anticipated remains to be seen.
virtual madness
The safety claims from this industry deserve our skepticism for additional reasons. Much of the confidence in autonomous systems derives from “virtual mile” simulations where AI learns by playing video games for billions of simulated miles. Real-world highway tests, which face unpredictable and complex situations, only represent a small portion of the overall narrative.
Waymo, the current frontrunner in the self-driving car industry, is already responsible for most of the self-driving vehicle accident reports submitted to the California DMV. And that’s only for reported incidents. What happens when countless autonomous trucks commence operations throughout Texas?
Texas has become a hotspot for testing self-driving trucks, largely due to regulators adopting a lenient stance on oversight. Investors seem to enjoy this, while the general public may find themselves participating in an unwitting beta test of this technology.
phantom menace
A significant potential risk is “phantom braking,” a problem the industry has largely overlooked. Dr. Missy Cummings, a former Navy pilot and director of the Mason Autonomous Robotics Center at George Mason University, recently warned the New York Times that “there’s no clear answer for phantom braking issues at this point. And since no one wants to acknowledge that it’s happening, it won’t be resolved anytime soon.”
Cummings explained that this existing malfunction has previously caused incidents. And when you’re talking about a hefty Class 8 semi, the consequences of such issues could be significantly more severe.
Fellow truck drivers share my awareness of this challenge. Modern collision avoidance systems in trucks operated by humans can be triggered by shadows, weather changes, lighting variations, and animals, leading to unfortunate jackknife incidents.
human touch
Self-driving technology clearly has its weaknesses, and it seems likely that more bugs will crop up in the future. Yet, developers are adamant that software-driven vehicles are inherently safer than those operated by humans. The constant stream of dramatic dashcam accident videos on social media subtly reinforces this belief.
However, human drivers already maintain a solid track record for safety. Automobile site Jalopnik calculated that for a self-driving vehicle to outperform a human, it would need to avoid accidents 99.999819% of the time.
Even if autonomous driving can achieve such high standards, the economic ramifications must be examined. This isn’t just a minor tech upgrade. Truck driving is a profession that employs close to 2.5 million Americans. The broader trucking industry supports roughly 8 million jobs and generates about $200 billion in wages yearly.
The figures touted by advocates of self-driving vehicles are perplexing. They claim that for every 1,000 autonomous trucks, “190 jobs would be created,” while conveniently ignoring the numerous driving jobs that would vanish in the meantime. Many could be lost.
Who can participate in DRIVE?
If we are to accept the advancing trend of driverless vehicles as inevitable, then at the very least, those advocating for them should be honest about the fallout. Instead of catering to tech investors and inciting unsubstantiated fears that China is overtaking us with autonomous vehicles, lawmakers should prioritize the perspectives of their constituents.
Currently, at least three bills have been proposed in Congress to expedite the rollout of self-driving cars. One bill, introduced by California Republican Rep. Vince Fong, would effectively limit states’ ability to regulate self-driving technology on their roads.
So much for the principles of federalism.
What is the name of Rep. Fong’s bill? “America is the Law of Action.” It’s a bit ironic, given that the individuals advocating for these policies appear to envision a future where Americans won’t drive vehicles at all.
As a truck driver who has navigated the roads for nearly 30 years without a single accident, I’ll give you my take: “No, thank you.” I suspect that millions of other Americans would share my sentiment.
