Kerr County, Texas has found itself under intense public scrutiny after numerous fatalities were reported in connection with a flash flood that occurred on July 4. Local officials are facing questions about their preparation and response, especially given that records show the county had anticipated the likelihood of a flood event as early as 2024.
During a recent press conference, authorities confirmed that the death toll has risen to 95, with 161 individuals still unaccounted for. Sheriff Larry Leesa mentioned that a “post-action” review would be conducted for the families of victims, although he was vague about specific actions taken during the flood when the Guadalupe River surged by 30 feet.
“We’ll get those answers,” he said, attempting to encourage those affected to bear with him. “I hope you’re okay?” He reassured the audience regarding the county’s notification system, which is designed to send emergency alerts to subscribers’ mobile devices. The effectiveness of this alert system was called into question during the press conference, especially since Kerr County lacks traditional warning devices, like sirens, despite ten failed attempts over the last decade to implement such systems.
County Judge Rob Kelly echoed the sentiment that officials were unaware of the impending flood, despite the National Weather Service releasing flood monitoring alerts the day before the incident. A flash flood warning was issued at 1:14 a.m. on the day of the disaster, shortly before the river reached critical levels.
The timing of evacuation efforts has also raised eyebrows. A Facebook post urging residents to seek higher ground was made at 5:31 a.m., followed shortly by a repost of the NWS warning by the sheriff’s office. While the Texas Department of Emergency Management claimed to have directly communicated with judges and mayors about weather forecasts the day before, Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring Jr. stated he did not receive any such communication, leaving him unclear about what local officials were informed of.
“I wasn’t on that call,” he remarked, suggesting perhaps he wasn’t considered significant enough as a local mayor. The record of communications between local leaders and state officials was also a point of interest for investigators trying to better understand public warning decisions during that time.
Hazard Mitigation Plan
Under federal guidelines, counties must develop local hazard mitigation plans to qualify for disaster recovery funds. The latest plan—220 pages long—was adopted by Kelly and the County Commissioner in April. It includes input from various stakeholders, including the cities of Ingram and Kerrville, as well as local school districts and emergency management coordinators.
The planning group met multiple times and made use of historical data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, among other sources. While William B. “Dub” Thomas has been serving as the county’s Emergency Management Coordinator since November 2015, he has not been prominently involved in public discussions following the flooding, despite being responsible for ongoing monitoring of mitigation efforts.
The group’s research suggests that Kerr County and its municipalities are likely to experience another flood event within the next three years, confirming that flooding will become increasingly common.
Goals and Objectives
The hazard mitigation plan outlines 106 instances of flooding dating back to 1960. Recent data indicates that future flood events could deliver significant amounts of rain, potentially leading to severe flooding.
The plan also highlights various impacts of flooding, including:
- Power outages due to downed lines.
- Drivers and residents needing rescue.
- Structures being flooded or washed away.
- Roads being eroded.
- Emergency medical facilities facing accessibility issues.
Despite outlining the risks associated with rare flood events, the plan emphasizes that factors such as climate change could lead to more frequent flooding occurrences.
Among its primary objectives, the plan aims to reduce fatalities and injuries by improving the effectiveness of warning systems and ensuring timely evacuations in vulnerable areas.
The updated plans also identified actions still necessary from the previous 2018 mitigation efforts, including educating the public about risk mitigation and proposing a local flood warning system to help lessen the impact of future floods.
KXAN is currently awaiting feedback from the county on the implementation status of these mitigation strategies and whether they were adhered to during the recent flooding.
