Shingles Rates Decline Among Younger Adults in the U.S.
Recent research indicates a significant decline in shingles cases among younger adults in the United States. This change coincides with the fact that the first generation eligible for routine childhood chickenpox vaccination has now reached their late 20s.
The study conducted by Epic Research examined the health records of over 85 million adults, revealing that the most notable decrease in shingles cases occurred in those born between 1991 and 1995 compared to those born from 1996 to 2000.
Dr. Marc Siegel, senior medical analyst, explained that shingles is triggered by the varicella-zoster virus. This virus can lie dormant in the body’s peripheral nerves, which may reactivate under certain circumstances, especially during times of stress or compromised immunity. This reactivation can lead to an increased risk of developing shingles.
In the older demographic, approximately 46 out of every 10,000 individuals experienced shingles. In contrast, the younger group had only 17 cases per 10,000, which represents a striking 62% reduction.
The data was collected between January 2017 and June 2026, with the findings officially published on October 2, 2026.
Shingles appears to be predominantly prevalent in older adults, with 182 out of every 10,000 individuals born from 1968 to 1975 diagnosed compared to just seven out of 10,000 from the 2006 to 2008 cohort.
According to Kersten Bartelt, the research clinician involved in the study, the upward trend of shingles diagnoses with age is expected. However, the marked decrease starting with individuals who received the chickenpox vaccine in the mid-1990s is noteworthy. This observation supports the theory that vaccinations against chickenpox in childhood could potentially lower the risk of shingles later in life.
Should this trend persist as vaccinated individuals grow older, it might indicate a long-term benefit of the chickenpox vaccine in reducing the incidence of shingles, Bartelt noted. Continuing research will be important to validate this hypothesis.
Siegel concurred with this perspective, noting that earlier research has illustrated how preventing the initial infection via chickenpox vaccination—or a very mild form of the virus—can significantly mitigate the risk of shingles. He also pointed out that the vaccine employs a weakened version of the virus, significantly reducing its chances of causing shingles upon reactivation.
However, it’s vital to acknowledge some limitations of the study. One major point is that the researchers did not confirm whether individual patients had actually received the childhood varicella vaccination.
Bartelt mentioned that since this was a descriptive, observational study, it delineates correlations rather than definitive causality. Moreover, disruptions in healthcare services due to the COVID-19 pandemic could have impacted diagnosis rates, possibly skewing the results.
Looking ahead, more investigations are needed to establish a clearer relationship between childhood vaccination and long-term shingles outcomes. Bartelt recommends that individuals follow established vaccine guidelines and discuss shingles vaccination with their healthcare provider as they become eligible. It’s also crucial to highlight that shingles can surface in younger adults, and anyone experiencing a painful, blistering rash should seek prompt medical attention.
While those who received the chickenpox vaccine have a lower risk of developing shingles, Siegel advocates for eligible individuals to get the shingles vaccine to further decrease that risk.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advises that shingles vaccination is recommended for adults aged 50 and over, as well as certain immunocompromised adults aged 19 and older, including those who previously had the varicella vaccine.
