Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz: Recent Developments

A total of 172 ships have navigated the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran established a memorandum of understanding (MOU) last week. Maritime intelligence firm Kupler noted that over 200 tankers are awaiting passage through the strategic waterway as of Tuesday.

However, the Iranian military announced a daily limit on the number of vessels that can cross the strait.

In a recent post, President Trump excitedly claimed on Truth Social that “19 million barrels of oil spilled from the Strait of Hormuz” on Monday, marking what he described as an “all-time record.” He further stated, “Oil prices have crashed and the world is a safer place!!!”

US crude oil prices experienced a decline on Monday. The international benchmark for Brent crude dipped below $75 per barrel, falling 4% to $77 per barrel—its lowest since the onset of Operation Epic Fury in late February. Yet, it’s worth noting that these prices remain over $10 per barrel higher than they were prior to the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Kupler’s tracking indicated that 39 vessels passed through the strait on Monday, a slight decrease from Saturday’s 42. Experts in maritime security indicated that at least 30 of these ships were transporting Iranian crude oil, while five tankers were previously under US sanctions prior to the lifting of restrictions associated with the MOU.

Current tracking data shows that 200 ships are positioned at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, with an additional 250 tankers and 440 cargo vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. Many of these ships have remained stationary since the signing of the MOU.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) of Iran reportedly declared the strait closed once again last Saturday, blaming Israel for breaching the terms of the MOU by continuing its engagement with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Nonetheless, traffic in the strait has only slightly decreased.

On Tuesday, reports emerged from IRGC sources that Iran’s state-run Fars News Agency would restrict the daily passage of ships through the strait, a decision seeming to counter Iran’s earlier commitments specified in the MOU. The IRGC did not clarify how many vessels would be permitted daily, only stating that the figure would fluctuate based on the current situation.

Shipowners, facing uncertainty, claimed they are “in deep confusion over the safest route out of the Gulf,” amidst conflicting directives from Iran, the US, and European insurers. Notably, Iran’s guidance instructs ships to follow its coastline, while advice from the US and insurance firms suggests keeping close to Oman’s coast. It is suspected that Iran is trying to facilitate toll collection on the Iranian side after a pause in shipments.

An insurance broker commented on this lack of coordination, emphasizing that difficulties lie ahead: “Iran insists that the ships go through the Iranian route and pay the toll. The US is recommending the Oman route while providing air support. It just feels like a dead end.”

Additionally, Iran demands that all vessels passing through the strait must register with the Persian Gulf Straits Administration (PGSA), an organization Iran set up in May. This is considered a potential way to impose additional financial burdens on international shipping lines in the future.

The Joint Multinational Maritime Information Center (JMIC) also indicated that the Strait of Hormuz might be hazardous due to mines alleged to have been laid by Iran. The JMIC recommends using the Oman coastal route, confirming it is “free of mines.”