Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Low Despite Ceasefire
Ship-tracking reports indicate that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is still below 10 percent of normal levels. This continues despite Iran’s apparent promise to stop attacks on civilian vessels as part of ceasefire agreements with the U.S. and Israel.
Following the start of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, Iran effectively shut down this important strait, leaving many oil and cargo ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. The global oil supply has since decreased by about 20 percent, significantly impacting consumers in regions like China and Southeast Asia.
Recently, President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, during which Iran was expected to ensure the “full, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” However, the agreement seems to have faltered, as only a few vessels managed to pass through before Iran backtracked on its commitments. Meanwhile, Israel reportedly violated the ceasefire by continuing military operations against Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, which both the U.S. and Israel maintained was outside the ceasefire’s scope.
Data from ship tracking indicates that just seven vessels crossed the strait in the last 24 hours—far fewer than the usual 140 daily. Notably, only one of these was an oil tanker.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has assured vessel captains that crossing the strait is safe if a specific route is followed to avoid mines, but, well, many ships appear hesitant to risk it. There’s also the unsettling news that Iran has threatened to impose tolls of up to $2 million per vessel for safe passage, although they lack any legal authority to do so. One vessel that managed to sail recently, an Indian-flagged LPG tanker, reported that it hadn’t paid any toll or ransom.
Maritime intelligence firm Windward stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains “effectively closed” for most traffic. Their reports emphasize that all movements still require coordination with Iranian military forces, a tactic they believe indicates Iran’s desire to maintain its influence during ongoing ceasefire discussions.
Interestingly, two Chinese oil tankers were reportedly seen entering the strait but then opted not to pass through. Shipping giant Maersk recently issued an advisory suggesting that while the ceasefire might present shipping opportunities, the situation still feels perilous overall.
ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, underscored the urgency of opening the Strait of Hormuz immediately and unconditionally. The CEO stated that Iran’s assertions imply a need for navigational permits and influence, labeling this as coercive, rather than a genuine freedom of navigation.
He stressed that energy producers need to restore large-scale production safely and promptly. Furthermore, he reiterated the demand for Iran to be held accountable for damages caused to Emirati infrastructure over the past month, asserting that the strait must remain fully open for the stability of energy security and the global economy, with oil-laden Emirati ships ready to navigate it as needed.
