Braves vs. Cubs: A Late-Season Showdown
This time of year, there are different types of series in baseball. Some are essentially meaningless since neither team is vying for a playoff spot. Others feature a team still in contention but facing off against a certain loser. Then we have games between two teams grappling for playoff positions or solidifying their standings. Finally, there are those matchups between teams that are mostly assured a postseason berth, yet still jockeying for the best possible positioning. Tonight’s game between the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago Cubs certainly falls into that last category—and it could even hint at a future playoff encounter.
The Braves have been remarkably steady this season. They’ve consistently been one of the top teams in the league and have maintained their position as division leaders since day one. They’ve had a few hiccups, particularly during a stretch when the Philadelphia Phillies were outperforming, but overall, this squad is solid. That said, they do show some vulnerability when playing away from home. They sit above .500 in road games, but considering they’re 26 games over .500 overall, it’s their home success driving those numbers.
There’s really no doubt about the Braves making the playoffs; their main concern now is clinching the division, and they’re currently 5.5 games ahead. Tonight’s starting pitcher, JR Ritchie, will be looking to extend that lead. His record stands at 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Interestingly, his performance doesn’t dramatically change whether he pitches at home or on the road, but his night game ERA of 5.13 compared to 3.06 on the road shows a clear trend. He has improved recently, though he doesn’t go deep into games, and the Cubs have struggled against him, managing just a .167 batting average in their limited exposure.
The Cubs have held onto their playoff position as well this season. Although they haven’t quite managed to catch the Brewers in the NL Central, they’ve maintained a firm grip on the first Wild Card slot for much of the year. If they had a more formidable rotation, one could argue they’d be favorites for the World Series—at least in competition with squads like the Dodgers. Their offense has really been the backbone of their success, especially standout player Pete Crow-Armstrong.
However, their pitching staff has struggled. Injuries have taken a toll, but there’s also been a lot of letdowns with performances. They’ve surrendered more home runs than any other team in the National League. Take Shota Imanaga, for example—he’s had a tough season in that regard, already allowing 34 homers. On the brighter side, he generally does well in limiting hits and walks, though home runs have been his Achilles’ heel. He had a great July, faced challenges in August, but seems to be trending positively again in September. He did well against the Braves in one prior matchup, conceding only two earned runs over seven innings.
Wrigley Field can be tricky with the wind conditions playing a big role. Still, if Imanaga isn’t sharp tonight, hitters could easily take advantage. To be honest, I’m not entirely sold on Ritchie either. Given the offensive momentum both teams have shown in this series and the unpredictable nature of these pitchers, I think there’s a solid likelihood of runs pouring in tonight. Therefore, I’m going with the over 7.5 for this matchup.
