Bearish below 30.29
A breakdown will occur if the price falls below last week's low of 30.29. If this happens, it will break below the trend line and cause a decline below last week's lows. It should be emphasized that last week's candlestick pattern was a bearish shooting star. It may not have been in the ideal position for the trend as it was within the weekly consolidation zone, but it was still bearish. Also, note that the uptrend line correlates with last week's low.
If last week's lows cannot hold as support, the previous support around 29.68-29.64 may be tested. While the possibility of a triple bottom exists, it is also possible that silver continues to fall below the double bottom and finds support near the downtrend line or the 78.6% retracement zone at 29.24. Regarding double bottoms, if we break last week's lows, we can consider the double bottom pattern to have failed. If that happens, this would also be bearish evidence.
Bulls are likely to move above 30.29
On the bullish side of the analysis, a sustained rally above Friday's high of 30.29 would trigger a bullish reversal on the day and a recovery of the 20-day moving average. A subsequent daily close above that high would confirm the strength and put silver in a likely position to challenge the double bottom neckline at 31.54 and the recent interim swing high at 32.33.
During the recent bearish correction that started from the October swing high, silver maintained an uptrend price structure as support was found at the rising internal trend line. This reflects a continuing and valid upward trend. This trend is likely to continue until evidence to the contrary is found. Evidence to the contrary would first be shown by a decisive drop below last week's lows.
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