As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, the United States and its NATO allies have stepped up their involvement in the conflict, risking a more direct confrontation with Moscow.
President Joe Biden reportedly gave Ukraine permission in May to launch U.S.-supplied weapons directly into parts of Russian territory. NATO allies are also considering a similar policy. send NATO will send trainees to train the Ukrainian military, a new initiative that could signal a shift in NATO’s war involvement policy and further escalate the proxy war with Russia. (Related: “What’s the problem?”: Zelensky says NATO needs to ‘shoot down’ Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace)
VILNIUS, LITHUANIA – JULY 12: (L-R) UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak, US President Joe Biden, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attend the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting during the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on July 12, 2023. The summit brings together leaders of NATO member and partner countries from July 11-12 to chart the future of the alliance, with Sweden’s membership application and Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine high on the summit’s agenda. (Photo by Paul Ellis – Pool/Getty Images)
NATO Parliamentary Assembly Convened On Monday, Ukraine called on the alliance to lift a current ban on firing Western weapons directly at Russian territory, echoing calls made recently by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and senior officials from Britain, Sweden, Latvia, Poland and Lithuania. Kiev has long sought to request NATO has demanded permission to fire weapons provided by Western countries at Russia, and officials lament that NATO’s ban means they are unable to effectively counter Russian aggression. (Related: Months after Biden declared Putin “already lost the war,” White House reportedly worried about Russia’s sudden emboldening)
Secretary of State Antony Blinken Antony Blinken during a press conference meeting President Biden on Wednesday gave no indication of plans to immediately change policy on how Ukraine is allowed to use U.S. weapons against Russia, though he has reportedly already given Kyiv permission to fire on Russian territory. according to Blinken did not mention it on Wednesday, the Financial Times reported.
The decision comes on the back of tens of billions of dollars in military aid the United States has sent to Ukraine over the past two years.
“The president recently directed his team to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weapons for counterattack purposes in Kharkiv, allowing Ukraine to respond to any Russian attacks or preparations for an attack,” the U.S. official said. Said He added to Politico on Thursday that the administration’s policy stance on long-range attacks inside Russia “has not changed.”
KHARKIV, UKRAINE – MAY 14, 2024: Emergency personnel work to extinguish a fire caused by a Russian airstrike near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on May 14, 2024. Around 6 p.m. on May 14, Russian forces attacked Kharkiv with UMPB D-30 guided bombs. In recent days, Russian forces have been expanding their presence around Kharkiv, an area that Ukraine had nearly recaptured in the months following Russia’s first major incursion in February 2022. Russian forces have intensified their attacks on Kharkiv, forcing residents to leave, Kharkiv Mayor Igor Terekhov said. (Photo by Vlada Liberova/Ribkos/Getty Images)
But Moscow Warned Firing weapons provided by NATO to Ukraine into Russian territory could escalate the war and further draw the ally into the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin Said He warned on Tuesday that such action by NATO would mean a new escalation “that could lead to serious consequences.”
“Giving Ukraine the means and permission to attack deep into Russian territory significantly increases the likelihood of a direct conflict between the U.S. and Russia, which could ultimately lead to the use of nuclear weapons,” George Beebe, a former CIA analyst and director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute, a non-interventionist foreign policy think tank, told DCNF. Beebe noted that Russia is unlikely to use tactical nuclear weapons anytime soon, and would instead likely target U.S. assets such as satellites, creating a “cycle of tit-for-tat with the U.S.” that would be difficult to manage and contain.
Ukraine could benefit from using Western weapons to attack Russia because its own weapons are not capable of effective long-range attacks, but Western hesitation on the issue may have created “hype” that would invite Russian retaliation, said Jim Townsend, a former NATO and Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a foreign policy think tank. Led Former Democratic Party officials told DCNF. (Related: Russia arrests US soldier on theft charges: reports)
(From left) Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine De Donders meet and listen to Belgian F-16 pilots, instructors and technical staff during the Ukrainian president’s visit to Belgium as part of an agreement to help Kyiv fight Russian aggression, at Melsbroek military airport in Steynockelzeel, northeast of Brussels, May 28, 2024. President Zelensky is in Belgium to sign the latest in a series of security agreements with Western countries. Belgium has committed to delivering 30 F-16 fighter jets by 2028 to help Kyiv fight Russian aggression. (Photo by ERIC LALMAND/Belga/AFP via Getty Images)
“We made this such a big issue that Russia was forced to respond in some way. All of a sudden, this became a red line that Russia drew, underscored by the U.S.’ unwillingness to escalate,” Townsend said. “And now this is so publicly highlighted that even if we said, ‘Yes, OK, go ahead.’ [and fire into Russian territory]”If we declare, ‘We have no intention of fighting another enemy,’ it will force Russia to take further action, and nobody knows what that might be. So I think there is definitely a risk of escalation even more than we saw earlier in the war.”
In addition to arms policy, NATO allies Also In consideration of Sending troops to Ukraine to help train its military. Ukraine is suffering from a severe manpower shortage and is rapidly recruiting and conscripting new soldiers for the war effort. Kiev has asked the US and NATO to help train them.
NATO-backed training in Ukraine, the first since the war began, could bolster the country’s fighting capabilities against Russian forces, which do not suffer from the same personnel shortages. (RELATED: Zelensky says US is working on fixed 10-year aid plan for Ukraine)
But if NATO troops in Ukraine were caught in the crossfire of a Russian attack, it could lead NATO as a whole to take more direct action in a conflict. Regulatory “An armed attack against one or more states in Europe or North America would be considered an attack against them all,” it said, and in that case the allies would be obliged collectively to take “such action as they deem necessary,” including by force.
In this pool photo published by Russian state news agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin inspects the honor guard of the Presidential Regiment after the inauguration ceremony at the Kremlin’s Sobornaya Square in Moscow, May 7, 2024. (Photo by Mikhail Tereshchenko/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
“Let’s say we have French or German trainees in Ukraine who are killed in a Russian missile attack,” Michael DiMino, a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a former CIA officer, told DCNF. “So what do we do? What happens next? Do we avenge those casualties and get the U.S., France, Germany, again, all the NATO countries to launch some kind of limited attack against Russia? Surely Russia would view that as an act of war and not respond?”
If a Russian attack kills NATO soldiers and the alliance chooses not to retaliate, it could risk undermining the alliance’s commitment to self-defense. (RELATED: Brittney Griner breaks silence on Russian detention)
“Even if there are relatively few Western troops on the ground, this will provide a strong incentive for Russia to target them. To do otherwise will only lead the West to believe that Russia will increasingly tolerate direct Western engagement over time,” Beebe told DCNF.
Kiev authorities and President Zelensky will attend a peace conference in June. Summit More than 160 countries, including the United States, have been invited to Sweden, which Biden said would “provide a forum for world leaders to discuss a path toward a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.” Signaled Kyiv is also expected to attend. Annual NATO leaders are expected to discuss existing and new efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s security at a July summit, which could include sending troops to the region and lifting Western arms restrictions.
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