South Korea Sees a Notable Rise in Births
The South Korean Statistics Bureau has released April data that indicates a significant rise in childbirth, the largest such increase since 1991.
In April 2025, there were 20,717 births, representing an 8.7% increase compared to the same month in 2024. This marks the first time in three years that South Korea has surpassed 20,000 monthly births.
The fertility rate also saw an uptick, rising from 0.06 in April 2024 to 0.79 in April 2025. While this rate is still far below what’s necessary for stabilizing the population, it does show some progress. It’s worth noting that the number of natural deaths increased by 0.8% in April, meaning the overall population still faces a negative growth trend. Since 2019, South Korea’s population has not seen any growth.
The Korea Statistics Bureau highlighted that this increase in births seems to correlate with a rise in marriages, as well as an increasing number of women in their early 30s. Various pro-birth policies from both the central and local governments have also played a role.
There was a 4.9% year-on-year increase in marriages in April, marking the 13th consecutive month of growth, while divorces fell by 5.2%. Given that most children in Korea are born within marriage, marriage rates serve as a crucial indicator of birth rates.
South Korea’s population decline is considered a serious problem, even labeled a “national emergency” by former President Yoon Sook-Yeol. The Yoon administration initiated several measures aimed at reversing these concerning demographic trends, such as increasing parental leave, offering flexible work options, and supporting childcare programs.
Yoon sought to establish a Ministry of Population Planning to address the demographic crisis, but his plans faced various obstacles. Internal political conflicts stalled government appointments and led to a crisis following his controversial attempts to impose a Martial Law Decree in December 2024.
After a failed attempt to enforce martial law, Yoon was ousted and replaced by opposition leader Lee Jae-myung in a special election that took place this month.
During his campaign, Lee proposed measures to tackle the population crisis through subsidized loans, parental tax credits, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing aimed at younger families. There’s some skepticism about the effectiveness of Yoon’s policies, which had only modest success in boosting marriage and birth rates following the pandemic disruptions.
Interestingly, Lee’s focus on tax credits may have been influenced by a study from Oxford University, which linked a significant tax hike in the 1970s to a decline in South Korea’s population. The research suggested that raising the value-added tax led to a sharp decrease in disposable income, subsequently resulting in lowered fertility rates.
According to the study, the birth rate in Korea dropped from 6 in 1950 to below 1 in 2023, aligning with shifts in tax policy. The findings suggest that taxation could be a viable tool to influence demographic trends, particularly around family and child affordability.
The study also noted that young people in high-tax environments tend to feel uncertain about their financial futures. This uncertainty often leads them to prioritize personal satisfaction over starting families, creating a reluctance to marry.
Lee’s suggested tax credit appears insufficient to reverse these trends, as demographic experts warn that recent surges in births may temporarily be driven by an “echo boom” of women born in the 1990s. However, as these women age, they may not sustain the current upward trend.
Overall, South Korea, like many developed nations, operates under high tax regimes with little inclination towards significant tax reductions. The government’s approach often centers on targeted subsidies rather than broad policies aimed at revitalizing economic opportunities for young families. Such measures are unlikely to effectively ease the burdens faced by those contemplating marriage and parenthood.
