Soybean Prices Keep Dropping on Monday Even with Another Chinese Purchase

Soybean Market Update

Soybeans wrapped up trading on Monday with a dip of 4 to 5 cents. The market seems to be responding to the ongoing developments regarding Chinese purchases. The national average cash price for soybeans, according to cmdtyView, decreased by four and a half cents to $10.01. On the other hand, soybean meal futures saw a rise of 70 cents, reaching $1.10, whereas soybean oil futures dropped by 30 cents to settle at 70 cents. Reuters indicated that the EPA won’t finalize its decision on the RVO for 2026 until next year.

This morning, the USDA released figures showing private export sales to China totaling 136,000 tons.

Data on export inspections revealed that soybean shipments for the week concluding December 11 were at 795,661 tons (around 29.24 megabuoys), marking a 22.4% decline from the prior week and a significant 59.6% drop from the same week last year. China led the importers with 202,043 tons, followed by Germany at 136,515 tons and Vietnam at 80,425 tons. For the current commercial year, total shipments stand at 13.702 MMT (503.47 mbu), indicating a 46.3% fall compared to last year.

Additionally, we got an update on the delayed export sales report. This report indicated sales of 2.232 MMT for the week of November 20, sitting at the high end of the estimated range of 0.8 to 3 MMT. Notably, 2.14 MMT of this was sold to China, most of which was already known through daily sales announcements. Including today’s figures, total known sales to China have now reached 4.2 MMT. Meal sales hit 150,951 tons, which is on the lower side of the 100,000 to 450,000 tons estimate. Soybean oil sales rebounded from the previous week, reaching 7,540 tons, again at the lower end of the anticipated 5,000 to 25,000 tons.

This morning also brought NOPA data, revealing that members crushed 216.04 million bushels in November. This is down 5.1% from October’s record high but still up by 11.83% year-on-year, setting a new record for November. Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.513 billion pounds, reflecting a 15.95% increase since the end of October and a 39.58% rise compared to last year.

This afternoon, the CFTC published its Traders’ Commitment Report for the week ending November 25. It showed that managed money reduced its net long position in soybean futures and options by 15,336 contracts, bringing the net long total to 214,289.