Soybeans Respond to RVO Announcement

Soybean Market Update

Soybeans closed down 5 cents to 14 1/2 cents at the end of trading on Friday. This marks a decline compared to a 2 cent drop in May earlier this week. The national average cash price for soybeans, as reported by cmdtyView, is now at $10.86, down 14 1/4 cents. Additionally, soybean meal futures dropped by $2.20, settling at $6.80 on Friday, with a significant decrease of $12.70 for May. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures experienced a dip of 6-61 points, influenced by rumors of buying and actual selling, while rising 190 points through the week in May.

In other news, the EPA announced the final renewable volume obligations (RVO) for 2026, setting the biomass-based diesel volume at 8.86 billion RINS. The figure for 2027 is 8.95 billion RINS, marking an increase over earlier proposals of 7.12 billion and 7.5 billion RINS respectively. There will also be an adjustment in small refinery exemptions, boosting RINs to 9.07 billion for 2026 and 9.2 billion for 2027. Notably, for 2028, foreign fuels and raw materials will receive only 50% of the RIN value compared to this year, which is a change from what’s been previously suggested.

This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 105,000 tons of soybeans to undisclosed locations. Current export sales data shows total commitments at 37.256 MMT, reflecting an 18% year-on-year decrease. This figure represents 87% of the USDA’s forecast and falls short of the average sales pace of 95%.

As for speculator activity, CFTC data indicates that funds have reduced their net long positions by 4,093 contracts as of March 24th, leading to a total of 197,904 contracts of soybean futures and options being purchased.

NASS will release its March Intentions data next Tuesday. Traders are anticipating 85.55 million acres of soybeans will be planted this spring. If this estimate holds, it would indicate an increase of 4.33 million acres. Ahead of the grain inventory report, soybean stocks as of March 1 are projected at 2.067 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 158 million bushels compared to a year earlier, if confirmed.