Virginia Special Election Insights
On Tuesday, voters in Virginia, specifically outside Washington, will participate in a special election, offering an early look at the upcoming high-stakes gubernatorial race this fall.
Republican Stewart Whitson, an Army combat veteran and former FBI agent, is running against James Walkinshaw, a Supervisor from Fairfax County and a former chief of staff to Jerry Connolly. This Northern Virginia district typically leans heavily Democratic, which gives Walkinshaw a significant advantage.
Still, a recent analysis of statewide elections might shed light on the governor’s race, even if Whitson doesn’t manage a historical upset for the GOP.
Virginia has a law preventing governors from serving consecutive terms. Glenn Youngkin’s victory in 2021 was notable not just for focusing on key issues like the economy and parental rights, but also for his ability to achieve solid results in regions that are traditionally Republican.
In Lee County, located 400 miles from the race between Whitson and Walkinshaw, the political dynamic flips dramatically.
It’s worth noting that Donald Trump lost Virginia in both the 2020 and 2024 elections. In 2020, he secured 84% of the county vote, particularly around the historic Cumberland Gap. By 2021, Youngkin had managed to outperform Trump in most of southwest Virginia, capturing 88% of the vote.
Wise County mirrored these trends, showing 79% support for Trump and 83% for Youngkin. Similarly, Tazewell County, which borders West Virginia’s coal region, gave Trump 82% and Youngkin 85% support. All of this suggests ongoing loyalties, which have been highlighted in various analyses.
Even in Washington County, a relatively suburban area near Bristol, Youngkin outperformed Trump by about five points.
Contrastingly, in Fairfax and Arlington counties, where Lt. Col. Wyn Earl Sears and Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger are contesting in a race on Tuesday, there is a blend of anticipation and apprehension regarding the special election results.
Results from Connolly’s runs in 2024 and 2022 were similar, where he triumphed over military veterans by margins of around 67-33. If Walkinshaw performs better than Connolly did recently, it might bode well for Spanberger.
On the flip side, Earl Sears might find comfort in Whitson’s stronger showing, indicating less enthusiasm for Democrats in one of the state’s most reliable districts.
Earl Sears emphasized that understanding the Southwest is vital, not just for elections, but for governing Virginia broadly. “Everyone wants to be heard,” she expressed, promising to differ from typical politicians.
She added that areas like Connolly’s have room for conservative dialogue that addresses various community issues. “I might come off as someone who votes Democrat, but I’m not,” she said, asserting her appeal to all voters.
A representative for Spanberger endorsed Walkinshaw on Tuesday, describing him as a staunch advocate for families in Northern Virginia.
Currently serving as a Fairfax County supervisor, Walkinshaw is recognized as a strong voice against detrimental actions by the Trump administration that have impacted federal workers and the Virginia economy.
“With the White House’s ongoing blunders threatening jobs in Virginia, we need leaders focused on advancing the Commonwealth’s interests,” the spokesman stated.
If Walkinshaw succeeds, it could create a vital regional collaboration for Spanberger ahead of November. Together, they hope to tackle rising costs for families, safeguard jobs, enhance public education, and improve safety across Virginia.
