From Providence to the Knicks to Kentucky to Louisville, Rick Pitino’s teams have traditionally made big strides in his second year as coach.
Providence advanced to the Final Four.
Kentucky has improved by eight wins.
Louisville moved from eighth to third in the Big East, and the Knicks won the Atlantic Division.
Can St. John’s follow that script?
Off the back of a strong offseason, Pitino and his staff added top guards Kadaree Richmond (Seton Hall) and Davon Smith (University of Utah) via the transfer portal and retained a young core of RJ Lewis, Brady Dunlap, Zubby Ejiofor and Simeon Wilcher, which has led to optimism that the Johnnies can break through and return to the main draw of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.
As summer training began last week, The Washington Post spoke with three anonymous college coaches and two analysts — Fox’s John Fanta and CBS’ Jon Rothstein — to break down what, on paper, appears to be a strong roster.
Strengths
The backcourt has the potential to be elite. Richmond and Smith led a transfer class that was ranked No. 1 in the country by EvanMiya.com, which uses a formula that incorporates box stats and advanced metrics to quantify a player’s overall impact. The 6-foot-tall Smith, a speed merchant well suited to Pitino’s up-tempo system, set a Pac-12 single-season record with five triple-doubles. Richmond, a big (6-foot-6) playmaking guard who was named to the All-Big East First Team, led Seton Hall to an unexpected fourth-place finish in the Big East and an NIT championship. Joining them is sophomore Wilcher, a top-30 prospect out of Roselle Catholic (N.J.) who improved as the year progressed as a freshman. All three have the ability to create their own shot.
“If you look back at coach Rick Pitino’s career, his best teams have always had a ferocious group of guards that can put pressure on opponents defensively, and that’s what this team is made up of,” Rothstein said. “Right now, St. John’s is in a position to have the best backcourt in the Big East, and they have to prove they could also be one of the best in the country.”
The only drawback to this group may be their perimeter shooting. Wilcher is the best 3-point shooter of the trio, but he’s still unproven. Smith shot a career-best 40.8% from 3-point range last year, but he only attempted 2.5 3-pointers per game. Richmond has never attempted more than 1.8 3-pointers per game in his four collegiate seasons. The team will be counting on them to do well. But Rothstein noted that Smith and Richmond’s shooting limitations didn’t hinder them last year, as the pair attempted a combined 7.9 free throws. Additionally, the 6-foot-7 Dunlap is expected to make a breakthrough as a court spacer, and Jaden Glover, a top-50 recruit from The Patrick School (N.J.), can make the shot.
There was some uncertainty about how Richmond and Smith would coexist as two lead guards accustomed to dominating the ball, but the coaching staff is hopeful it will resolve itself and that Pitino will be able to work it out, just as he did with Peyton Siva and Russ Smith at Louisville.
“Anyone who thinks Richmond can’t win with their skill and Rick Pitino’s coaching is fooling themselves,” one coach said.
Versatility is a word often used to describe St. John’s. Richmond’s size and rebounding prowess (he averaged seven rebounds per game last season) allow him to play smaller players at the 4, including Lewis and North Texas transfer Aaron Scott, a 3-point shooter and defensive powerhouse. The Red Storm can also play bigger players, thanks to 7-foot-1 USC transfer Vince Iwuchukwu and Ejiofor’s ability to defend on the perimeter. Pitino has options.
“They have more players who are proven at this level than they did last year,” the coach said.
Weaknesses
Some have questioned the accuracy of his shooting, but the bigger concerns are up front. Iwuchukwu was a promising player when he enrolled at USC, but has had health issues and has yet to prove himself at the collegiate level. International forward Ruben Pray is highly regarded but remains an unknown quantity. Ejiofor performed well in the second half of last season, but still averaged just 4.3 points and 3.1 rebounds as a sophomore. Replacing the performances of Joel Soriano and Chris Redlam will not be easy. The duo combined for 23.3 points and 16.4 rebounds. There are solutions, but question marks.
“From that position, St. John’s has to find a way to get 12 points and 12 rebounds (per game),” Rothstein said.
X-Factor
Lewis’ first year as a Johnny was plagued by injuries. He missed extended periods due to a broken hand and a sore shin. The latter ailment severely limited his practice time and curtailed his potential impact. Still, there were signs of great promise. The versatile 6-foot-7 Lewis averaged 13.1 points and 5.7 rebounds in 15 games in which he played at least 21 minutes. He was the best player on the court in a win over Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals, scoring 18 points and grabbing nine rebounds. After the season ended, Lewis had surgery on his shin and is hopeful he’ll be able to participate in summer training next month.
“I love RJ,” another coach said, “I love his energy and how hard he plays. He’ll be a mismatch for the other fours.”
If Lewis can consistently average in the mid-teens, “it’s game-changing,” the third coach said.
projection
All five sources agree that, at least on paper, this team is one of the top five teams in the top half of the Big East, and they all agree that it has deeper roster, more athleticism and is a better fit for Pitino’s high-pressure style than the group that won 20 games last year and lost in the NCAA Tournament.
“Sweet 16. If everything goes well, they can win two NCAA Tournament games,” Fanta, the Fox announcer and commentator, said. “Am I really going to doubt Rick Pitino and say they can’t do it two years in a row? I wouldn’t say that. They have an NCAA Tournament roster and would be a preseason top 25 team to me.”
“They have some All-Big East players and some returning players who have shown flashes of brilliance.”
