St. John’s University has eliminated the margin for error.
All previous breathing chambers are gone.
With five losses in six games, the Johnnies have no chance of making it to the NCAA Tournament.
They got off to a good start in the tournament and made it to the cut line, according to three prominent brackets: Brad Wachtel of Fact & Blacks, Lucas Harkins of Heatcheck CBB, and Dominique Reese of Bracketmetry. academic told the Post.
“I think they’re 50-50.” [if the teams were getting selected] Today,” Wachtel said. “Right now I’m happy that they’re the last team, but things change day by day.”
All three teams currently remain in the tournament, with St. John’s (13-9, 5-6) among the final four teams.
It’s never comfortable.
Their resumes need improvement.
Coach Rick Pitino’s team has no notable wins, with only two wins against bigger teams on the field (at neutral Utah and at home at Butler).
St. John’s only lost one game at home to disappointing Michigan, and its No. 43 NET ranking, the tool most used by selection committees to evaluate teams, is solid for a bubble team. The Red Storm’s 2-7 record in Quad 1 games (best win quality based on NET rankings) needs improvement, but their 5-1 record in Quad 2 games ranks them as a team. It’s an asset that is kept within the company, Riese said. , last year’s top-rated bracketologist.
“By increasing your volume, you can keep your resume metrics in pretty good shape,” says Harkins. “Sometimes it’s just one win by an elite player that gives a team an edge. But let’s take Florida as an example. Kentucky’s only win in Quad 1 for the rest of the year , if St. John’s University doesn’t have wins at that level but has four wins in Quad 1 compared to the University of Florida, the advantage will flip to St. John’s, barring a great, great win at the top.”
St. John’s can’t afford to lose one of the Big East’s disastrous duo of Georgetown and DePaul. They will play each team twice, starting with DePaul on Tuesday at UBS Arena.
They are potential land mines.
Of course, these two teams combined for only one league win this year, but it was Georgetown that beat DePaul at home by three points.
Otherwise, you have an opportunity to improve your resume.
The most obvious is Saturday’s trip to No. 7 Marquette. Recently, the Golden Eagles defeated the Johnnies by one point at the Garden.
The home game against No. 19 Creighton on Feb. 25 at MSG could also bring big changes. They also have a chance to play in Quad 1 against Providence and Butler on the road, and at home they will compete in Quad 2 against Seton Hall.
A 3-2 record in those games is probably good enough. Two wins in those five contests could be enough, barring losses to Georgetown and DePaul.
“I think adding two more quality wins and one more bad loss to our resume is probably enough unless we lose badly in the Big East Tournament,” Reese said. “Even if you get two wins against Butler and Providence that aren’t high-level wins, you still have two more Quad 1 wins on your resume. I think if they can win, even if they don’t win at a high level, they’ll be fine.”
Interestingly, Wachtel cited one team in the Big East as important to St. John’s path to the tournament.
Johnny swept Villanova, which was considered important at the time. However, the Wildcats have struggled recently and are falling outside of tournament expectations.
But they hit Providence on Sunday. It will be important for Villanova to get back on the field and play.
“I think they’ll eventually come in and it’ll be a benefit for St. John’s,” Wachtel said. “What’s important? We win against big teams, we win against tournament teams.”
At the end of the day, St. John’s has to rack up wins.
The past few weeks haven’t ruined his tournament chances, but the damage has been done. All along, the back end of the league schedule was thought to be advantageous for Johnny. He needs to take advantage of that slate.
