The Johnnys lost by 15 points to Seton Hall on Tuesday, their second straight loss, as Rick Pitino was sidelined due to a COVID-19 diagnosis.
I'm not too worried about the 12-6 Johnnys just yet, but it helps to have Pitino back on the sideline for Saturday's monster home game against Marquette.
The Golden Eagles come into this matchup coming off some tough losses to Seton Hall and Butler.
Still, they bounced back with a home win over Villanova on Monday, and because they played a game on Monday, they will have a crucial rest advantage over the Johnnys.
While the situational spots scream for a Slick Rick bounce, there's a reason Marquette has won four straight in this rivalry. That's because the graphical matchup is too difficult for the Red Storm to overcome.
St. John’s vs. Market Prediction
(12pm ET, FOX)
You might be surprised to hear that Pitino's teams are just 4-4 against the spread as home underdogs since 2004.
So I don't think you can bet on a pullback or a home-low buy angle here.
Instead, I'm betting on the market's pick-and-roll set.
Shaka Smart runs one of the most innovative and explosive ball-screen offenses in the country, leveraging the playmaking of Tyler Korek, the versatility of Oso Ighodalo, and the sharp shooting of Cam Jones to control the half court. to determine the score.
Marquette's ball screen metrics plummeted during a mini-slump, but the Eagles bounced back against Villanova, posting a whopping 1.18 PPP on 38 pick-and-roll sets in a 13-point win.
I expect more ball-screen buckets in this matchup since St. John's pick-and-roll defense is poor.
The Red Storm rank 303rd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (1.02) and will struggle against Smart's offense.
On the other side of the court, Pitino uses the backcourt duo of Danis Jenkins and Jordan Dingle as initiators to create a ball screen attack.
But Dingle won't play on Saturday..
Red Storm also wasn't very effective in these sets.
Much of their offense comes from Joel Soriano, who crashes offensive boards, catches mistakes and helps produce the most second-chance points (17) in the nation per game.
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There are still questions about Marquette's ball screen defense, but the Eagles are working on improving their defensive boards.
Ighodaro's 18% defensive rebound rate ranks ninth among Big East players, and he leads the nation's top 40 defenses in second-chance PPG (8) and PPP allowed (0.94).
If Marquette keeps Soriano and co. out, St. John's offensive production will suffer significantly.
As much as I'd like to bet they're home dog on a losing streak in the Big East, you can't do that in this schematic matchup.
I'm rooting for the Eagles to get another conference win, get back to 4-3, and aim for the top of the Big East standings.
St. John’s vs. Market Prediction
Pick: Market -1.5 (-110, FanDuel)
