St. John's is 3-0 on the year with three wins of 20 points or more.
Of course, Johnny isn't playing against the guys who dominated Fordham, Quinnipiac, and Wagner.
New Mexico State will be the toughest test yet for Rick Pitino and co.
The Lobos already have a KenPom Top 25 win after defeating UCLA in Las Vegas last Friday.
Donovan Dent and Nellie Jr. Joseph are a formidable inside-out duo.
These two teams are similar teams and I think the Lobos have a fighting chance to keep it close for 40 minutes.
New Mexico State vs. St. John's Odds
| team | spread | money line | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| new mexico | +8.5 (-108) | +290 | 161.5 or higher (-114) |
| st john's | -8.5 (-112) | -375 | Less than 161.5 (-106) |
New Mexico vs. St. John's predictions
(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Both teams will run up-tempo, transition-based offenses centered on the backcourt. The Lobos and Johnnies put the ball in the hands of the guards and run the open court for 40 minutes.
Both teams have talented players in the frontcourt, but frontcourt depth is limited. It also has limitations in the area of shooting and spacing, often allowing shooting at medium ranges.
These two have above-average transition defense, so expect a lot of transition attempts, but both may struggle to score efficiently.
However, there are some wrinkles in the matchup that favor the Lobos.
In theory, Pitino's matchup zone defense should negate ball screen action.
But in reality, Johnny's ball screen coverage was more than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed (.88) last season, allowing opponents to advance sets at a well-above-average rate.
It doesn't bode well for this matchup considering the Lobos are playing almost exclusively ball screen sets with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustafa Amzil in the half court.
Additionally, I was impressed with New Mexico State's rim pressure early in the season. The Lobos are averaging 28 at-the-rim field goal attempts per game (98th percentile). It will definitely result in more efficient shots than St. John's mid-range dependent attack.
Last season, the Johnnys ranked 325th nationally in rim-and-three percentage, and their most important offseason addition was former Seton Hall guard Cadary Richmond, a talented two-way player but unable to pedal in the middle of the floor. Too much time to row.
There's no telling what the Red Storm offense will do without Joel Soriano.
Sunday will be the first real test without the former star center.
He grabbed 1 million offensive rebounds last year and overshadowed a roster lacking in shooting ability by creating a consistent second-chance offense.
This year's roster lacks a suitable replacement, especially if the 6-foot-7 RJ Lewis continues to play No. 4.
This becomes more of a point about roster continuity.
Teams with more returning players tend to perform better than teams with fewer returning players early in the season. Fully formed teams perform better than teams with more transfers in November and December.
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New Mexico ranks 66th (49%) in the nation in duration, while St. John's University ranks 263rd (22%).
The Johnnies rely on four transfers to gain significant time of possession.
New Mexico State vs. St. John's Pick
The Lobos and Johnnys have very similar strategies, leading you to believe that it will be a close battle between them.
But I'm going to back New Mexico's returning players and ball screen offense against St. John's transfers and sketchy ball screen cover defense.
Best bet: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)
