Study Shows Shift in North Carolina Senate Race Support
A recent study commissioned by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America indicates that highlighting the abortion record of Roy Cooper, the Democratic Senate candidate and former Governor of North Carolina, has influenced voter support. The messages promoting Republican candidate Michael Whatley have notably gained traction, especially those focusing on federal abortion legislation.
According to the organization, it has engaged over 770,000 households in North Carolina through a new voter contact strategy, anticipating this to be one of the most fiercely contested Senate races in the country. Republicans aim to maintain their majority in the Senate and fill the seat currently occupied by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis.
The canvassing efforts are directed toward persuadable voters and those with historically low turnout, emphasizing abortion-related issues and Cooper’s actions as governor, which include his backing of federal abortion legislation that could potentially undermine state restrictions. Notably, Cooper vetoed a law in 2023 that sought to ban most abortions after 12 weeks of pregnancy, arguing that it endangered the well-being of women and families. His veto was later overridden by the Republican-controlled General Assembly, allowing the law to come into effect.
Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, explained that Cooper’s veto against the 12-week limitation—an issue widely supported in North Carolina—had significant negative repercussions for him. “He vetoed what could have been a popular move to restrict abortion in the first trimester,” she noted. “It was a very unpopular choice and it resonates with voters.” Furthermore, she mentioned his veto of a bill aimed at providing appropriate healthcare for newborns who survive attempted abortions, creating further contrast with the positions of Whatley.
The study examined which messaging tactics were the most effective in shifting voter sentiments. By predicting possible voter behavior, it also identified demographics most likely to switch from Democratic to Republican after being exposed to pro-life messages. Evolving Strategies conducted this randomized-controlled trial, analyzing responses from 2,607 registered voters within the state. They used a method that matched participants with voter files and consumer data to ensure accuracy.
The messages were divided into four categories: “Fed,” “Record,” “Soft Positive,” and “Hard Positive”—in addition to a control group exposed to neutral messaging. The “Fed” message criticized Cooper’s stance on federal laws potentially overriding state regulations, while the “Record” message scrutinized his gubernatorial actions regarding abortion. The “Soft Positive” and “Hard Positive” messages emphasized Whatley’s pro-life views.
All message types proved somewhat effective, with the Republican vote margin shifting by nearly +5 points overall. The two messages attacking Cooper appeared particularly effective, producing a +4.9 point shift for the “Fed” message and a +3.2 point change for the “Record” message. The “Hard Positive” message generated a +3.9 point change, outperforming the “Soft Positive,” which only yielded a +1.7 point shift.
For those identified as the most persuadable voters, the estimated impact could be substantial, potentially moving the Republican margin by +12 points or more. Dannenfelser remarked, “We’re noticing that these messages really connect with voters who feel sidelined by the Democratic Party, regardless of whether they previously leaned Democrats or considered Cooper.” It appears that abortion remains a critical and resonant issue in North Carolina’s political landscape.
