The latest climate outlook for the coming summer shows that temperatures will continue to be well above average in many parts of the lower 48 states, and precipitation will vary across the country.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its latest seasonal outlook Thursday, showing the probability of above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation in the region.
This includes the meteorological summer period, which begins on June 1st and lasts until August 31st.
Forecasters said the ongoing La Niña event will begin to affect weather patterns across North America, but it’s unclear exactly when the pattern will emerge.
The formation of a ridge of high pressure over the western United States and southeastern Canada could generate a significant heat wave, potentially challenging record temperatures in the region.
With this outlook, the country could well experience one of the hottest summers on record, surpassing the records set in 2021 and 1936.
The only region of the country likely to experience near-average temperatures is the upper Midwest, a stark contrast from the El Niño-induced winter that saw the region experience its warmest extremes.
The unusually warm weather for much of the year is not unexpected, as the Met Office previously called for global temperatures to end 2.84 degrees Fahrenheit above average in 2024.
The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Agency announced that the global temperature anomaly in 2023 will be about 2.66 degrees Fahrenheit above the moving average.
Rain continues to fall despite warm temperatures
Normally when warm temperatures prevail, precipitation for the region is below average, but NOAA forecasters don’t expect that to happen east of the Mississippi River.
The agency’s precipitation forecast for June, July and August shows most states in the eastern United States will most likely experience above-average precipitation.
NOAA cites the expansion of La Niña over the Pacific Ocean as one of the main impacts of the weather pattern in late 2024.
The forecast for precipitation does not bring good news for everyone, with vast areas of the west likely to see below-average rainfall.
This includes the desert southwest, where the monsoon typically gets into full swing in late summer, but the latest forecasts show this is clearly not a significant factor next season.
When both El Niño and La Niña are out of control
Several climate agencies around the Pacific consider El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the basin to be currently neutral, but NOAA’s latest update on April 11 indicates the region remains under an El Niño advisory. is subject to.
But even if they give a fair chance (85%), El Niño will disappear this spring.
The neutral state of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs when the eastern and central Pacific water temperature anomalies are between 0.9 °F and -0.9 °F.
All neutral summers over the past 20 years have produced seasons in which temperatures exceed typical values.
The precipitation front has average or above-average precipitation in most parts of the country.
