The latest climate outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that the current La Niña pattern is winding down. Within the next month, we can anticipate neutral conditions, but models are hinting at a growing chance of a robust, possibly super-strong El Niño during the height of hurricane season.
This El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is part of the broader climate cycle influenced by Pacific Ocean temperature shifts and atmospheric movements that significantly affect global weather patterns.
El Niño is marked by above-average sea surface temperatures, while La Niña is noted for below-average temperatures. Neutral conditions hover around long-term averages.
During hurricane season, El Niño often dampens tropical activity in the Atlantic by increasing upper wind shear, which disrupts the formation and strengthening of storms. Typically, a stronger El Niño can lead to a more pronounced suppression of storms.
Recently, various long-range forecast models have become more assertive about the potential for a strong El Niño this hurricane season.
The International Climate and Society Research Institute (IRI), associated with Columbia University, collects around 20 advanced climate models. Their outlook has shifted significantly; in February, they predicted water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific would peak at nearly 0.7 degrees above average, suggesting a mild El Niño. Now, current projections estimate temperatures could reach almost 1.5 degrees above average by October.
NOAA continues to stress that the odds of a strong or even Super El Niño forming during the upcoming hurricane season are rising.
In years with El Niño, the Atlantic Basin usually sees about ten named storms and five hurricanes.
On the flip side, La Niña years tend to be more active, averaging around 14 named storms and roughly seven hurricanes.
That said, several factors play into seasonal activity, notably the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which are currently at or slightly above average. Warm waters provide more energy for developing storms.
This situation is creating a sort of tug-of-war between the detrimental wind shear from El Niño and the warmth of the Atlantic Ocean that generally supports storm activity.
A prime example occurred during the 1992 hurricane season, an El Niño year, when Hurricane Andrew caused 65 fatalities and over $25 billion in damages.
Historically, record-warm Atlantic waters can override the usual suppressive effects of El Niño. This was clearly evident in 2023, which turned out to be the fourth most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. Hurricane Idalia, for instance, made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend, causing around $3 billion in damages.
While comparing hurricane seasons isn’t exactly straightforward, one strong storm can lead to significant consequences.
Timing is another crucial element when it comes to El Niño. If it establishes itself early, by mid-summer, it could greatly restrict activity during peak season. However, if the changes take place gradually, there might be chances for storm development earlier in June and July.
