Poll Shows Shift in Voting Plans Among Democrats

As President Donald Trump aims to end mail-in voting, recent polling indicates that more Democrats are opting to vote in person this fall compared to previous elections, according to a survey from NBC News released on Sunday.

The poll reveals that only 23 percent of registered Democrat voters intend to vote by mail in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections—a noticeable decline from 34 percent reported in mid-September 2024.

The network’s report highlights that:

Currently, 36% of Democrats plan to use early voting sites, which is an increase of 6 points from a similar timeframe two years ago. At the same time, another 36% are planning to vote in person on Election Day, which is fairly consistent with the 35% from 2024. Meanwhile, 5% express uncertainty about their voting methods or are unlikely to vote at all.

This NBC News poll was conducted from September 11 to 15. Notably, on the evening of September 14, the U.S. Supreme Court intervened to block an executive order by Trump that aimed to set new criteria for how states could distribute mail ballots for the midterm elections. Since the 2020 election, which occurred during the Covid pandemic, Democrats have heavily relied on mail-in voting.

Interestingly, the poll also shows a decline in favor of mail-in ballots among independent voters. About 25 percent of them said they would opt for mail-in voting this year, down from 28 percent in 2024. Conversely, 28 percent indicated they plan to vote in person, a rise from 22 percent, while 37 percent said they would cast their vote at the polls on Election Day—a drop from 41 percent. Additionally, 15 percent were unsure or unlikely to participate in the elections.

In contrast, Republican voters appear to remain steady in their voting preferences, as the NBC report outlines. The poll indicates that 16% would choose mail-in voting, 26% plan to vote early in person, and 53% would vote on Election Day—figures that have remained largely unchanged since 2024.

A broader perspective on expected voting trends for 2026 has come to light, shared by Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt from Hart Research Associates, who conducted the poll in collaboration with the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies:

Among early voters, Democrats enjoy a 23-point advantage on the congressional ballot, whereas Republicans lead by 14 points among Election Day voters. So, if a blue wave is on the way, it will arrive at different times, perhaps even over several days or weeks.

The poll engaged 1,000 registered voters from September 11 to 15, employing a mixture of telephone interviews and online surveys via text messages, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.