Polling Results in Florida’s Governor and Senate Races

According to a Stetson University poll published on Tuesday, Republican candidates Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody are each enjoying an 11-point lead in their respective races for governor and U.S. Senate in Florida.

The survey, conducted by Stetson’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR), indicates that Donalds is leading Democrat David Jolly with 52 percent compared to 41 percent among likely voters. Similarly, Moody holds a 52-41 advantage over Democrat Angie Nixon in the Senate race.

In broader terms, Republicans also showed strength in the generic congressional ballot, leading 50 percent to 41 percent.

Moody’s approval rating was recorded at plus-21, with 55 percent of respondents expressing approval and 34 percent disapproving. Governor Ron DeSantis had a plus-14 rating (55-41), while President Donald Trump barely exceeded the halfway mark with a plus-1 rating (50-49).

Trump has endorsed Byron Donalds, the congressman from Naples. Donalds had an impressive fundraising total of over $22 million in the first quarter, significantly outperforming other candidates. He campaigned on the promise of building on DeSantis’s legacy and could become Florida’s first black governor if successful.

David Jolly, a former Republican congressman, switched to the Democratic Party in 2025 prior to launching his campaign. He has chosen former Representative Gwen Graham as his running mate and is focusing on the state’s affordability issues in his campaign.

Ashley Moody was appointed to the Senate in January 2025 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio vacated the seat. The upcoming election in November will determine who continues the term through 2028. Angie Nixon, a state representative from Jacksonville endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders, recently defeated retired Army Lt. Colonel Alex Vindman in the Democratic primary but has faced challenges in fundraising.

Steve Vancore, an analyst for Florida Politics, expressed some skepticism regarding the poll’s methodology, highlighting its reliance on an opt-in online panel rather than the official state voter file. He noted the sample included too many Trump supporters, which skewed the results by about five points, suggesting that demographic adjustments could not fully remedy the imbalance.

Vancore pointed out that adjusting for party registration reduced Donalds’ lead to around ten points. The Stetson poll results are consistent with other recent surveys; for instance, a James Madison Institute poll from October 9 showed Donalds ahead by ten points, while an NBC6/Telemundo/Mason-Dixon poll indicated Moody leading 50-40 and Donalds at 48-41.