Iowa Senate Race Shows Tight Race Between Hinson and Turek

A recent poll from Quantus Insights indicates that Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) is slightly leading her Democratic opponent, state Rep. Josh Turek, in the race for the Iowa Senate seat. Hinson holds 47.1 percent of the support compared to Turek’s 45.8 percent, a narrow margin of just 1.3 percent. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn has 1.7 percent backing, and 5.4 percent of voters remain undecided—enough to potentially sway the outcome.

The poll also highlights that this slim margin remains consistent across various circumstances. For instance, when factoring in undecided voters who lean toward a specific candidate, Hinson’s support rises to 48.5 percent while Turek’s adjusts to 46.6 percent. In a separate query focusing solely on the two main candidates, Hinson nets 48.9 percent against Turek’s 46.7 percent.

Moreover, Hinson’s competitor Turek, who has the endorsement of former President Barack Obama, is reportedly gaining traction among independent voters, enjoying a 17-point lead in that demographic. Interestingly, about nine percent of independents have yet to make a decision.

On another note, Hinson seems to have a 10-point advantage among men, while Turek leads by 12 points among women. The divide is particularly pronounced among younger voters aged 18-29, where Turek’s support surpasses Hinson’s by 21 points. In the age group of 30-44, the candidates are neck and neck, whereas Hinson leads by eight points with those aged 45-68 and has a slight three-point edge among voters who are 65 and older.

According to Quantus Insights, Turek’s strengths with women and independent voters counterbalance Hinson’s appeal in rural areas, keeping the race highly competitive.

The poll was conducted from September 28-29, 2026, among 714 likely voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percent. This aligns with findings from an Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey, also released in September, which cited Hinson as leading Turek by five points.

In the Emerson Poll, Hinson received 50 percent support, with Turek at 45 percent and another five percent undecided. This reflects a slight uptick in support for Hinson, from 48 percent in August when Turek remained at 45 percent.

Hinson has emphasized differences between herself and Turek, especially regarding border security. She positions securing the border as a crucial issue, advocating for stronger enforcement of immigration laws and the deportation of serious criminal illegal immigrants. On the other hand, Turek has a history of supporting welfare for illegal immigrants, which he has tried to downplay recently.

Currently, the RealClearPolling average indicates Turek leading Hinson by a tiny fraction, less than half a percentage point.