Polling Insights in Georgia’s Political Landscape

Recent polling indicates that incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA) has a lead over Representative Mike Collins (R-GA) in the 2024 U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson (R) is slightly ahead of former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

A survey by Insider Advantage, released on Friday, shows Ossoff leading Collins by 50 percent to 42 percent. Interestingly, eight percent of participants remain undecided as election day approaches, just over a month away.

In the race for governor, Jackson holds a narrow lead over Bottoms, with 48 percent compared to Bottoms’ 46 percent. Here too, six percent of those surveyed have not made a choice yet.

Matt Towery, a pollster with Insider Advantage, expressed his surprise at this polling dynamic. He noted that it’s uncommon to see a well-funded Republican Senate candidate trailing behind a gubernatorial candidate in terms of voter percentage. If this trend continues, the state might experience a surprising amount of ‘ticket splitting’, which isn’t typical for Georgia.

Towery pointed out that the key difference lies with independent voters. He observed that Jackson and Bottoms are nearly tied in this demographic, while Collins is significantly losing ground, trailing by nearly twenty percentage points. Jackson’s campaign has been effectively tailored to attract suburban and exurban voters in and around metropolitan Atlanta, he suggested. There’s potential for the Senate race to narrow, but with Ossoff already reaching fifty percent in the polls, Collins faces a daunting task ahead.

RealClear Politics categorizes the Georgia Senate race as a “toss-up,” currently estimating Ossoff’s lead at an average of eight points. In contrast, the governor’s race is also flagged as a “toss-up” by RealClear, showing Jackson with a slim projected edge of 0.7 points.

This survey was conducted among 1,200 likely voters in Georgia from September 22 to 23.