NCAA Tournament Update

The upcoming 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament will see the 68 teams trimmed down to just 16. The first weekend of March Madness was full of surprises. A buzzer-beater attempt just fell short, the top seed faced an unexpected exit, and double-digit seeds made it to the Sweet 16. Surprisingly, the Texas Longhorns emerged, even if many didn’t view them as underdogs.

All the teams still in the running belong to major college basketball conferences. So far, the Big Ten has proven dominant, with six teams still alive. There’s a real possibility that three of the four teams in the Final Four could be from this conference. Meanwhile, the Big East hopes for its own moment in the spotlight, eyeing a potential Elite Eight showdown between Yukon and St. John’s.

As we get into this stage, it’s time to share some predictions about who might come out on top in the Sweet 16 and move forward to the Final Four.

• 1st Place Duke vs. 5th Place St. John’s
• 2nd Place University College vs. 3rd Place Michigan State University

When this matchup was revealed, Eastern seemed like a strong regional contender, and the match-up is certainly appealing for viewers. Duke, often seen as the flagship team in college basketball, is set to take on St. John’s, which represents New York City. The spotlight also shines on the clash between Tom Izzo’s Michigan State and two-time champion Dan Hurley from UW.

I had high hopes for Duke to take the championship title, but injuries are definitely a concern. Patrick Gomba has been sidelined, missing Duke’s narrow win against No. 16 Siena and only playing a brief span against TCU. His foot injury is a major talking point during March Madness. The pressure will be heightened as Duke goes up against St. John’s star Zuby Ejiofor, who’s on fire right now. Duke’s backcourt might have to rely on freshman Cayden Boozer to step up, especially faced with Rick Pitino’s defensive schemes. Honestly, I kind of want to pick St. John’s, but their shooting struggles make me hesitate. My gut says Duke will still take it to the Elite Eight.

Meanwhile, the face-off between UW and Michigan State looks pretty balanced at first glance. The Spartans have that physical edge, while UW seems to excel with shooting prowess, even if their stats don’t fully support that. Michigan State’s strength could shine through in rebounding and drawing fouls. Huskies center Taris Reed was visibly shaken earlier in the tournament, but it’s tough to imagine he can be the sole defensive barrier against the Spartans. UW really needs to capitalize on their shots from deep to maintain pace, but can they truly break through against Izzo’s defensive tactics? I’m hoping Michigan State pulls off a close win.

The anticipated Duke vs. Michigan State Elite Eight clash reminds me of the memorable 2019 match-up featuring Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett. Back then, Williamson was the best player, yet MSU pulled off a surprise. Their star was Cassius Winston, and now they have a promising player in Jeremy Fears Jr. While Duke may seem like the favorite, it wouldn’t shock me if Michigan State pulled off another upset.

Prediction: Duke over St. John’s | Michigan State over UConn | Duke vs. Michigan

• No. 4 Seed Nebraska vs. No. 9 Seed Iowa State
• No. 2 Seed Houston vs. No. 3 Seed Illinois

So, we’re seeing Nebraska and Iowa meet in the Sweet 16? That’s unexpected! They split their season series, with each home team taking the victory in their match-ups. Iowa State found success through offense, while Nebraska has shown strength in defense. Known for their ball movement, the Cornhuskers are hitting a lot of threes—over 50% of their attempts, to be precise. They’ll need their shooters to find their rhythm to outscore Iowa, but I have my doubts. The Hawkeyes came back strong in their last game, while Nebraska might not have the toughness to contend. Plus, it seems unlikely superstar point guard Bennett Staats will miss so many shots from beyond the arc again. I’ll go with Iowa here.

The showdown between Houston and Illinois promises to be a thriller. Illinois has demonstrated efficiency in their offense, but how tough are they really? Nothing like going against Houston, a team known for its physicality, to truly test that. Interestingly, Illinois has a sizeable rebounding edge this time, thanks to their formidable size. If they both find their shooting touch, watch out! Although Illinois sometimes struggles with defense, Houston often settles for mid-range shots. Kylan Boswell matches up well against Kingston Flemings, which makes for a fun dynamic. I’m leaning toward Illinois by around 6-8 points.

If Illinois and Iowa meet up in the Elite Eight, it could appear somewhat imbalanced. The Illini’s length seems too much for Iowa. I see Illinois taking this one by a solid margin as they aim for their first Final Four appearance since the days of Dee Brown and Deron Williams.

Prediction: Iowa over Nebraska | Houston over Illinois | Illinois over Iowa

Illinois advances to Final Four

• No. 1 Seed Michigan vs. No. 4 Seed Alabama
• No. 2 Seed Iowa State vs. No. 6 Seed Tennessee

How did Alabama reach this point without Aiden Holloway? It seems head coach Nate Oats is exceptional at leading his team. This year, Alabama has surprised many with their performance, especially given their size challenges. In contrast, Michigan boasts remarkable frontcourt talent, which could lead to a decisive game.

The match-up between Iowa State and Tennessee is likely to be closely contested, particularly with the potential absence of Cyclones star Joshua Jefferson due to an ankle injury. With Tennessee leading in offensive rebounding, Iowa State could really miss that defensive presence. The battle beyond the arc promises to be exciting too—Tennessee’s defense has kept opponents to a low 30.5% shooting, while Iowa State excels at 38.7%. Junior Milan Momsilovic stands out as a sharpshooter. Despite the challenges, I think Iowa State can find a path to victory, but Tennessee tends to create scrappy games, making it a tough call. I’m leaning toward Iowa State here.

If Jefferson returns, the match-up against Michigan could be intriguing. It’s hard to imagine Iowa State would win without him, given their historic absence from the Elite Eight since 1999-2000. Michigan clearly operates at a higher level than Iowa State and many others.

Prediction: Michigan over Alabama | Iowa over Tennessee | Michigan over Iowa

Michigan advances to the Final Four

• No. 1 Seed Arizona vs. No. 4 Seed Arkansas
• No. 2 Seed Purdue vs. No. 11 Seed Texas

Arizona stands out for its size, strength, and athleticism, making them a tough match for teams at this stage. Arkansas may have an explosive offense led by talented freshman Darius Acuff, yet their defensive lapses may hinder them. The Wildcats won’t need to rely on the three-point shot too heavily, which might make a difference in a tense game. I expect Arizona to outpace Arkansas unless the latter’s stars pull off something remarkable.

Purdue, having found momentum after an up-and-down Big Ten season, now faces a Texas team that has looked shaky. The Longhorns have been impressive in their recent games, particularly thanks to standout players like Matas Vokietaitis and Daylene Swain, yet they’re still seen as significantly behind Purdue. If the refs allow physicality on the perimeter, there’s potential for an upset, but I think Purdue’s depth and talent will see them through.

Should Purdue and Arizona face off, it promises to be a riveting contest. While I’ve previously leaned toward Purdue, I can’t shake the feeling that Arizona’s physical advantages might be too much. I predict they’ll secure their place in the Final Four without much trouble.

Prediction: Arizona over Arkansas | Purdue over Texas | Arizona vs. Purdue

Arizona advances to the Final Four