Tanker-tracking data reveals that the recovery of oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is less robust than what Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on Monday.
During a video address to an energy conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wright stated that oil shipments through the strait had returned to about 80 to 90 percent of prewar levels, translating to between 13 million and 14 million barrels per day. However, he noted that the export of refined products like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline remained significantly lower, at only 25 to 35 percent of the levels seen before the conflict.
“Energy statistics can be pretty tricky to gather, making them sometimes inaccurate and open to changes. So, there can be differences in reports,” said Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, in a comment to the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That said, we think the secretary likely has access to reliable data.”
Data from Kpler indicated that crude shipments through the Strait averaged around 10.3 million barrels per day for the week ending October 3, which is about 23 percent lower than their pre-war level of 13.5 million barrels daily. Another tracking firm, Windward, estimated a range of 9 million to 10 million barrels per day, down from 14.5 million barrels.
In August, Wright posted on X that the average for oil leaving the strait was nearly 9 million barrels per day, adding that additional pipelines and export facilities were contributing another 5 to 7 million barrels per day, resulting in a total of around 15 million.
The Department of Energy has not responded to requests for comment.
Matthew McManus, a senior fellow at the National Center for Energy Analytics and former State Department official, remarked that they’ve been tracking Gulf crude oil movements since the start of the crisis. He pointed out that various pipelines in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and to a lesser degree Iraq have been crucial in getting substantial quantities of crude oil to market.
“The volume of oil transported via pipelines and through the Strait will vary from week to week, but historically aligns with data from Kpler and the Department of Energy,” McManus noted.
Kpler reported that between September 1 and September 28, about 16.5 million barrels of crude were leaving the Gulf, equating to prewar averages, not including Iran, which is currently under U.S. sanctions.
Pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now responsible for about 40 percent of crude exports around the strait, a jump from just 17 percent before the war.
Despite this, around 60 percent, or 9.9 million barrels per day, still passed through Hormuz in September, primarily transferred to other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. Confirmed shipments were still more than a quarter lower than pre-war levels, as per Kpler’s findings.
Book added that the increase in Hormuz oil volumes might be due to the slower recovery of refined products and the refineries that produce them. “In simpler terms, when refineries process less oil, it means more is available for export,” he explained.
According to OPEC data, the Middle East accounted for about 15 percent of global diesel exports and roughly 8 percent of gasoline exports as of 2025.
Currently, diesel prices have surged to an average of $6.27 a gallon nationally, a notable rise from $3.67 a year ago, per data from the American Automobile Association.
In the month leading to October 6, nearly 20 commercial vessels, primarily tankers, reportedly faced attacks in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or near Oman, as reported by CNBC. The U.S. military has been safeguarding tankers using a route closer to Oman.
Wright emphasized that while the crude supply issue is largely under control, it hasn’t been completely resolved yet. He noted that factors like increased shipping costs, extended travel distances, and Iranian attacks on shipping have been hurdles in reinstating fuel shipments from the Gulf.
Furthermore, he pointed out that China had made significant cuts to its refined fuel exports for October, which has impacted supply, while U.S. refineries are operating at peak levels.
