We’ve seen the 49ers play upsets against the Packers and Lions in the playoffs.
The Packers took the lead with 1:11 remaining, and the Lions took a free fall from a commanding halftime lead in the third quarter.
In both of those comebacks, Brock Purdy emerged from the pocket on several scrambles. Against the Lions, the quarterback completed several chunk plays and gained 48 rushing yards.
He averaged 31 yards per game in the playoffs, a notable jump from 8.9 yards per game throughout the regular season.
What stands out about the regular season is that two of Purdy’s highest scrimmage yard totals came in games where the 49ers trailed and then lost.
His career high was 57 yards on six attempts in a 31-17 loss to the Bengals on October 29.
His next two were 20 yards against the Steelers, who rank sixth in blitz percentage, and 19 yards against the NFL-leading Vikings.
The Lions and Packers were top-six teams in pressure percentage this season. Think about what the Chiefs share with everyone here. Ranks top 7 in both blitz and pressure rate.
There’s no question that we’ll see an aggressive pass rush from Chris Jones and company as Kansas City looks to corner what many believe is San Francisco’s weakest link.
But the truth is that Purdy isn’t the weakest link. All five of his scrambles for positive yards over the past two games resulted in scoring drives.
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And don’t overlook the fact that Kansas City gave up 20.1 scrimmage yards to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season. This percentage finished as the 8th highest.
Purdy’s 11.5-yard line as a rushing prop in the Super Bowl was slightly bettered by both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. There’s a lot of exciting value in The Over.
The Play: Purdy 11.5+ Rush Yards (-110, FanDuel)
