Deciding which player props to place in the 49ers offense for the Super Bowl can be a little tough.
Let’s start with Christian McCaffrey scoring at least two touchdowns.
The 2023 rushing champion has scored two points in each of the last two playoff games. He has been in the end zone at least once in all six playoff games during his career.
He’s a No. 1 running back in many categories, but most notable is his red zone touch.
McCaffrey received feeds almost five times inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. He averaged only about one goal line carry per game.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense has a lot to do, but every time the 49ers get into scoring position, McCaffrey will have the best shot at scoring.
Deebo Samuel is set up to be versatile, including some work in the backfield, so I’m adding the over to his 80.5 yards rushing + receiving prop.
On a grand scale, Samuel has achieved this number in five of his last nine games.
He averaged 6.1 rushing yards on 2.5 attempts per game.
The Chiefs had a top-six secondary in yards and receptions, but Samuel displayed consistently elusive playmaking ability against any opponent, posting the single-best juke rate at the receiver position.
The final leg is San Francisco -2.5.
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When the two aforementioned players were healthy, the 49ers were 16-9 against the spread.
There are some trends that make the decision to fade Patrick Mahomes difficult, but the 49ers outperform the Chiefs in both offensive and defensive DVOA.
When push comes to shove, it’s a more comprehensive attack that gives Kansas City everything it can to deal with whatever tricks Mahomes pulls.
play: McCaffrey 2 touchdowns + Samuel 80.5+ rushing + receiving yards + 49ers -2.5 (+703, FanDuel).
