The NFL will take center stage again on Sunday night when the Chiefs take on the 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
This will be the Chiefs’ fourth Super Bowl appearance in the past five years, and they will become the first team since the Patriots in 2005 to win back-to-back championships.
If that’s not enough, this is a rematch from four years ago when the Chiefs won their first title in the Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid era.
As much of America gears up for the big game, sportsbooks are busy putting together their biggest betting menus of the year.
For example, BetRivers has over 900 different offers for Sunday’s match.
This kind of variety, packed with alternating lines and totals, is especially appealing to those who want to try their hand at same game parlays (SGP).
Despite careful consideration, there were 14 plays that just couldn’t be taken off the card.
As a result, we’ve put together a quick summary of why each play is worth including in this longshot SGP at 66/1 odds (a $10 bet pays $670).
Chiefs money line (+107)
I trust Mahomes’ experience in this spot, as he is a perfect 3-0 straight up (SU) in the postseason as an underdog. Additionally, Reid is 17-5 at SU with at least 12 days to prepare for opponents, compared to 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s 4-3.
Alternative total less than 57 points (-400)
There’s always a chance this game will be a track meet, but if this is the play that wins me, so be it. However, this alternative total has plenty of insurance, so the current numbers should be fine. Even with a more aggressive approach, I expect his total to be closer to 48.5 points.
Chiefs team total 20.5 points or more (-177)
The Chiefs have surpassed that number in their last eight playoff games, and my model predicts Kansas City will get closer to 24 points in this matchup.
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (-105)
Kelce is nearly unstoppable in the red zone, and Mahomes has enough room to throw to the tight end even when covered by multiple defenders. Kelce had just five touchdowns in the regular season, but he has at least three in the playoffs. He has also scored at least one touchdown in eight of the last nine playoff games and 10 of the last 12 games.
Brock Purdy Passing Yards Less than 279.5 (-305)
San Francisco scored 34 points against the Lions, but Purdy still finished with less than 270 passing yards. Based on FTN Fantasy’s DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) metric, the Chiefs’ pass defense ranks fifth. A strong passing game with Purdy will only work in the Chiefs’ favor.
Patrick Mahomes less than 0.5 interceptions (-117)
This play goes back to Mahomes’ big game experience factor. He has yet to throw an interception in six straight playoff games. Mahomes is also likely to play in the middle of the field with Kelce, avoiding some of the deep balls he tends to throw due to inconsistent play at the wide receiver position.
Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Under 84.5 (-305)
The Chiefs’ pass defense will be arguably the best Aiyuk has faced this postseason, but he has yet to eclipse 70 receiving yards in either game. Aiyuk is unlikely to be Purdy’s first choice simply because he doesn’t have enough receiving yards.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards 49.5+ (-335)
I can’t imagine a scenario where Kelce doesn’t play a big role in the Chiefs’ offense. He still finished with 11 catches, 116 receiving yards and one touchdown against a Ravens team with the best pass defense in the league. He also has at least 70 receiving yards in all three playoff games this season. Since this play is part of a mega-his parlay, it’s best to continue to take a conservative approach.
Isaiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Less than 24.5 (-250)
The playoffs are completely different than the regular season, and I don’t see much of a place for the Chiefs to target Pacheco out of the backfield here. Pacheco has only surpassed that number once in six playoff games. Mahomes is far from a check-down quarterback and is likely to make bigger plays than just dumping the ball to the back.
Justin Watson Receiving Yards Less than 34.5 (-385)
Watson played less than 50 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps this season, so this prop was all about usage for me. He hasn’t surpassed 20 receiving yards in the past two postseasons and simply hasn’t reached a high enough level on the depth chart to make a bigger impact.
Travis Kelce 5.5+ receptions (-286)
Some of you may not have guessed it yet, but I’m totally committed to Kelsey’s receiving prop. Kelce has outscored the receiving prop in five of the last six playoff games. With an extra week of preparation, I believe Reed will develop new wrinkles in grabbing the ball at tight end.
Ready to start betting on the 2024 Super Bowl?
Christian McCaffrey 69.5+ rushing yards (-315)
If the Chiefs excel defensively, it’s their ability to stop runs. Kansas City’s run defense ranks 27th in DVOA, and McCaffrey is averaging 94 rushing yards this postseason. If the Ravens had been more patient with the onslaught, we might have seen a very different Super Bowl matchup.
Isaiah Pacheco 49.5+ rushing yards (-315)
In two playoff games, the 49ers allowed 318 rushing yards and the opposing team’s lead rusher gained at least 93 yards on the ground. I expect both teams to be successful running the ball, with Pacheco rushing for at least 68 yards in all three postseason games.
Deebo Samuel 2.5+ rush attempts (-162)
This prop might be my favorite on the board, as Samuel is a wildcard option for Shanahan that could be a game changer. Samuel has had at least three carries in seven of the last eight playoff games. If he hadn’t been injured against the Packers, he probably would have kept that streak going.
Pick: 14 Leg Same Game Parlay (+6600, BetRivers)
