Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Berrettini could be the most important match of the first week of the U.S. Open.
It's a tough match for either player this early in the tournament, but the winner of Wednesday's main event will be confident of their chances of reaching the quarterfinals with their section already in the clear.
On the surface, this looks like a match Fritz will lose.
The American is odds-215 to reach the third round and is ranked 32 places higher in the world than Berrettini, but there is a lot of noise to sort through in this matchup.
Berrettini has been plagued by injuries for much of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, which has caused the Roman to plummet down the rankings, even as he looked to be on his way to becoming a regular in the top 10.
The first half of 2024 was a bit hit and miss for the big-serving Berrettini, but he clearly found his game over the summer.
Berrettini won in Marrakech and reached the final in Stuttgart before winning in Gstaad and Kitzbuehel.
He suffered early exits at Wimbledon and Cincinnati, but both were tough draws.
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On the other hand, Fritz's form leaves something to be desired, considering he is one of the favorites to win this match.
This is more of a coin flip than the odds suggest, so the Italian deserves to win.
theater: Matteo Berrettini +160 (DraftKings)
