According to security experts, while Iran retains the ability to use proxies for terrorist activities, its capacity to do so has notably diminished in recent years. This decline follows a series of punitive actions taken by the United States and Israel against the Islamic Republic.
Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, is considered a likely candidate for carrying out asymmetric retaliation on behalf of Iran. However, the group has faced increased challenges since Israel escalated attacks against its leadership following the October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas on Israel.
In November, Israel targeted Hezbollah’s acting chief of staff, Ali Tabtabai. The situation worsened for Hezbollah when, in 2024, an assault on the organization’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, resulted in his death. By February 21 of that year, Israel reported that it had taken out Hezbollah’s headquarters, leading to the deaths of 10 individuals, as confirmed by the Lebanese government.
“They are highly degraded,” said Joel Rayburn, a military analyst with the Hudson Institute based in Washington, D.C.
Rayburn questioned the feasibility of Hezbollah launching a new attack against Israel, suggesting it would be akin to suicide.
On Saturday, Hezbollah publicly denounced the attack on Iran but refrained from advocating for any attack on Israel. They expressed confidence that their foes, namely the United States and Israel, would ultimately face severe consequences and achieve nothing but failure from their aggressive actions.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun mentioned that Israel communicated through U.S. Ambassador Michel Issa, claiming it would refrain from attacking unless provoked by the Lebanese side.
Meanwhile, Houthi forces in Yemen announced they would resume their operations against Israel and shipping lanes, but Rayburn characterized them as “too far away to do any damage.” Previously, in 2025, President Trump authorized a series of operations against the Houthis, leading to an agreement between the two parties in May.
Rayburn, who has extensive experience in military and diplomatic roles, also downplayed the threat posed by Iraqi Shiite militias targeting U.S. and allied forces, labeling them as “not very capable.”
Iran has kept its neighboring Arab nations on edge with missile launches believed to have been strategically planned for potential U.S. attacks, though only five casualties resulted from these strikes.
Iranian leaders face significant obstacles in orchestrating proxy attacks, especially as their communication and command structures are reportedly under heavy assault.
“I don’t think we need to worry too much about Iranian terrorism in the short term,” said Royer Marc Gerecht, a former CIA official focused on Iran. He noted a dramatic decline in Iran’s operational capacity, attributing it to a degradation in the quality of personnel within their intelligence agencies.
Gerecht further pointed out that the fact that Iran has resorted to hiring foreign criminals for operational tasks suggests a lack of competent operatives. A stark contrast to the past, when Hezbollah instilled fear through its overseas terror activities.
In November 2024, Iran’s attempt to orchestrate an assassination of President Trump underscored both its nefarious intentions and operational ineptitude. Federal prosecutors indicated that Farhad Shakeri, a high-ranking member of the Revolutionary Guards, sought to recruit individuals for a plot against a Brooklyn journalist, inadvertently revealing plans during FBI communications.
