The top 10 teams in the Associated Press rankings have been playing hard-fought battles against unranked opponents on the road, with at least one team eliminated every week since early December.
Earlier this week, we saw Kansas State lose in overtime to Kansas State. And there’s a chance they’ll meet again Saturday in College Station.
6th place Tennessee (Texas A&M)
With the Vols in the sleepy part of their schedule, I circled Tennessee as another potential upset victim.
After a near-perfect offensive performance and a memorable win against Kentucky a week ago, UT enters the soft portion of its SEC schedule with games against A&M, Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Mizzou over the next two weeks. It will be done.
I’d forgive Rick Barnes and his army if they didn’t have the guts to stand up to that bunch of underachievers.
Speaking of underperformance, Haslamemetrics rates Texas A&M as the “most inconsistent” program in the SEC this season. However, this difference goes both ways.
If the Aggies played well, they could have upset Kentucky at home and nearly defeated Houston on neutral ground. They demonstrated very high ceilings.
When you purchase an Aggies, you get a front row seat to three things:
Second-chance buckets: The Aggies secure 43% of their offensive rebound opportunities.
This is a very high number, and if this number is maintained throughout the season, it will be the highest rebounding percentage since 2011.
This helps A&M make up for its deficiencies in shooting from the perimeter (26.6% 3PT, 357th).
Tickets to the Wade Taylor IV Show: The dynamic point guard has four games with 30 points or more in the past two months. When he’s cooking, A&M’s offense can outpace any team.
The Aggies have won five of their last seven games, during which he has turned it back less than twice per game.
His reliability on the ball will be critical against a UT defense that forces over 13 turnovers per game.
Tyrese “Boots” Radford’s improved play: The wing was phenomenal in last month’s five-point win over Kentucky (28 points) and scored the game-winning shot against Florida last Saturday.
His ability to get tough buckets inside will come in handy against a stout Tennessee defense inside the arc (43.4%, 8th).
recommendation: Texas A&M +4.5.
Colgate at Loyola Maryland
The Greyhounds’ home court “advantage” is rated #352 by Evan Miya, which may be generous.
Loyola is 0-8 ATS on its home floor this season, making it the Patriot League’s worst home team for three years.
So why is this number only 10 for a conference class? Dead cat bounce.
Do you want to bet on college basketball?
The Greyhounds defeated Navy 8-14 two weeks ago, ending a four-game losing streak. And they upset the Americans on the road in their last game.
However, that victory was a complete fluke. In fact, Loyola became the first team this season to beat an opponent while shooting less than 30 percent from the floor (15-of-51).
Loyola is arguably one of the most offensive teams in the country.
The Hounds can’t shoot (308th in shooting efficiency), consistently waste opportunities at the line (348th), and turn the ball over as much as any team in the Patriot League (333rd).
None of that will change against a formidable Colgate defense that ranks in the top 50 in opponent shooting efficiency.
I will play this until Colgate -13.5.
recommendation: Colgate-10.
