Mark Cannizaro previews the AFC South and The Washington Post reports on a division-by-division breakdown ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
1. Houston Texans
coach: Demeco Ryans
2023 Record: 10-7 | O/U Wins: 9.5
Main additions: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Joe Mixon, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folorunso Fatukaski, DE Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, LB Azeez Alshair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher
Main starting points: RB Devin Singletary, LB Jonathan Greenard, DT Malik Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Blake Cashman, CB Steven Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas
First and Goal: No. 2 overall pick CJ Stroud averaged 273.9 passing yards per game as a rookie in '23. Imagine how much better Diggs could be with Nico Collins (8 TDs, 16.2 yards per catch last season) and Tank Dell (7 TDs, 15.2 yards per catch)? The Texans spent big in the offseason, signing tight end Dalton Schultz to a three-year contract and signing Collins to a $72 million extension. Houston also signed Hunter, who had 16.5 sacks at Minnesota, and Autry, who had a career-high 11.5 sacks last year with Tennessee.
Force and Long: The Texans are 23rd in the league in pass defense, allowing 3,979 yards through the air, and they need to lower those numbers in '24. They added cornerbacks Okudah and Bryant to shore up that area and hope first-round draft pick Lassiter can be a shutdown corner. Autry will miss the first six games after violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy.
prediction: 11-6. The addition of Diggs and Mixon to an already explosive offensive team should help the Texans advance further in the playoffs than they did last year.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
coach: Doug Pederson
2023 Record: 9-8 | O/U Wins: 8.5
Key new additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, G Ezra Cleveland, DL Arik Armstead, S Darnell Savage, CB Ronald Darby, WR Brian Thomas, DT Marson Smith
Main starting points: WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, DT Folorunso Fatukasi, DE Dawuan Smoot, LB K'Lavon Chaisson, S Rayshawn Jenkins, CB Darius Williams
First and Goal: For the Jaguars, the key to everything was signing quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a $275 million contract extension in the offseason. The Jaguars lost their top receiver Ridley, but they also gained weapons in Davis and first-round draft pick Thomas. The Jaguars started 8-3, but lost five of their final six games and missed the postseason after leading the division for two months. Pederson responded by firing most of his defensive staff and letting three veteran starters go in free agency.
Force and Long: Lawrence must provide better ball security. He can't repeat his 21 turnovers from '23 or the playoffs are out of the question. The defense must improve from last season's 5,828 yards (22nd), including 4,076 yards passing (26th). Lawrence was sacked a career-high 35 times and finished four games with an injury. The Jaguars need Morse and Cleveland to improve an offensive line that ranks last in the league.
prediction: At 10-7, the Jaguars will avoid a late-season slump (1-5) in 2023 and will be competing for a wild-card spot.
3. Indianapolis Colts
coach: Shane Steichen
2023 Record: 9-8 | O/U Wins: 8.5
Main additions: QB Joe Flacco, DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT Matt Gonsalves
Main starting points: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DL Jake Martin
First and Goal: QB Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 overall pick in 2023, should be a big difference-maker if he's healthy after his rookie year was marred by a shoulder injury in Week 5. A healthy Richardson would also improve WRs Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Mitchell and RB Jonathan Taylor. Richardson should get more help this season with all five starting offensive linemen returning, 2021 NFL rushing champion Taylor happy and healthy and the Colts' receiver corps potentially the strongest it's been in years.
Force and Long: In '23, the Colts' biggest weakness was their defense, ranking 28th in points allowed (415), 31st in opponent offensive plays (1,137) and 24th in yards allowed (5,947). With little personnel improvement from last year's team, it will be interesting to see how much better they will be in '24.
prediction: 9-8. Richardson will be a difference maker, but defense is a concern.
4. Tennessee Titans
coach: Brian Callahan
2023 Record: 6-11 | O/U Wins: 6.5
Main additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Boyd, DE Sebastian Joseph Day, LB Kenneth Murray Jr., CB L'Jarius Snead, S Jamal Adams, S Kwandre Diggs, OT JC Latham, DT T'Von'Dre Sweat, LB Ernest Jones
Main starting points: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Chris Moore, TE Kevin Rader, DE Denico Autry, DT Kyle Peco, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Kevon Wallace, CB Kristian Fulton
First and Goal: Key pieces like Tannehill, Henry and head coach Mike Vrabel are gone after the team went 13-21 over the past two seasons. Callahan was hired to develop QB Will Revis in a West Coast offense under OC Nick Holtz. Revis should be helped by the addition of Ridley, who had a stellar 2023 season (76 catches, 1,016 yards). Ownership made the Titans one of the NFL's biggest spenders in free agency, filling holes and giving Revis plenty of help in his second season.
Force and Long: The Titans defense allowed just 14 turnovers in 2023, ranking second-to-last in the league, so an improvement in those numbers, along with Revis's development in year two, will be key.
prediction: 6-11, a slight improvement from 2023, but there are probably too many changes and moving parts.
