Texas remains overrated.
The Longhorns have played a laughably easy schedule, with five of their six SEC wins coming against teams with losing records.
Texas A&M will be the best defense Texas has faced all season.
After posting questionable offensive numbers against Arkansas (4.2 yards per play), Vanderbilt (5.6 yards per play), and Georgia (3.4 yards per play), I thought the 'Horns were ruthless. I don't think it would appear in a normal road environment. It's also worth mentioning that Quinn Ewers is suffering from a lingering ankle injury.
I don't like the Aggies offense, but they upgraded them after changing quarterback from Connor Weigman to Marcell Reed.
As we saw last week on the road against a borderline elite Auburn defense, Reed can run an RPO-based scheme very effectively (41 points, 7.8 yards per play, 55% completion rate). ).
Texas A&M also has a big advantage on special teams, a traditionally underrated third phase of the game.
For what it's worth, Mike Elko's Duke team went 3-1 against the spread as a home underdog, averaging more than 10 points per game.
Contender: Texas A&M +5.5
San Diego State Air Force (-4.5)
San Diego State is a scary two-way football team.
Despite this, the Aztecs are the most vulnerable to opposing rushing attacks, ranking 118th nationally in EPA per rush allowed, 112nd in rushing success rate allowed, and 130th in stuff rate. I am.
This does not bode well against triple option attacks.
Air Force was virtually lifeless for most of the season, but the Falcons improved as the season progressed, including a 36-28 win over Fresno State three weeks ago as a 10-point underdog. , won three consecutive games as an underdog.
San Diego State, on the other hand, has lost five straight games, three of which were by 20 points or more.
Vanderbilt (+11) vs. Tennessee
Diego Pavia's Commodores are auto-betted as big underdogs.
They run a down-tempo, rush-heavy, quasi-triple-option offense that shortens games, throws off the clock, limits possession, and makes it difficult for opposing offenses to build margin.
As a result, Vanderbilt is 7-1 against the spread this season.
Do you want to bet on college football?
The University of Tennessee boasts an elite defense, but I'm consistently underwhelmed by Nico Iamareaba and Volante's offense, which means they don't rate well as heavy favorites.
As such, the Vols are 0-4 ATS in SEC play as double-digit favorites.
last week:1-1. Kansas (W), Northwest (L)
2024 season:21-15.
