The 2028 presidential election still seems a long way off. Then again, the race may already be taking shape.
Midterm votes are barely counted, yet a growing cast of potential candidates is trying to establish a place in a campaign that could feel as if it began years ago by the time Election Day arrives.
Presidential contests are among the most popular subjects on prediction markets, just behind the Super Bowl. Kalshi’s 2028 markets have already seen close to $500 million in trading, despite the fact that voters won’t cast their ballots for another two years.
These markets have often performed well over time, but that doesn’t mean their early forecasts should be treated as precise. At this stage, they’re more useful as a rough read on who’s gaining attention, who’s in the middle of the pack, and who needs a serious boost.
Consider the Democratic field. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that about one-third of Democrats haven’t heard of Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. Plenty of other Americans may not recognize his name either. Still, winning Georgia by 18 points in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024 is the sort of result that can quickly raise a politician’s profile.
Kalshi gives Ossoff a 26% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, the highest figure in the field. That’s a striking position for someone many voters might struggle to identify.
On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance leads with a 33% chance of securing his party’s nomination, but his odds of winning the presidency are just 12%. The difference reflects what analyst Nate Silver has called the “VP curse”: vice presidents can become their party’s nominee when the president is unpopular, only to lose the general election.
Vance has been underestimated before, though, and he has appeared most effective when the stakes are high. He and Ossoff have both suggested they might not run. Politicians’ assurances about staying out of a race, of course, don’t always mean much.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom was a strong contender in the market a year ago. His chances of winning the Democratic nomination have since fallen from 37% to around 12%. He leaves office in January, giving him time to campaign full-time—and likely more opportunities to appear in front of cameras. Whether voters will welcome that is less clear.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at roughly 13% for the Democratic nomination. But there’s some uncertainty about which office she might pursue: traders see a Senate run as more likely than a presidential campaign.
Someone is likely to compete for the party’s democratic socialist voters. Ocasio-Cortez could do it, or Sen. Bernie Sanders might try once more. He would be 87.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio faces a similar question about his future plans. He has an 18% chance of winning the Republican nomination, and the market considers him about as likely to be a vice-presidential pick as the nominee.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has made the biggest move in the Republican market since the midterms. He was below 5% for the nomination before the votes were counted and has since climbed to 17%, close behind Rubio. DeSantis ran for president in 2024 and, like Newsom, is due to leave office in January.
Several Democratic hopefuls remain in single-digit territory: Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is in that group too, a notable drop for someone who led the party’s ticket just two years ago.
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, at 2.2%, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, at 0.7%, are further down the list. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz is at 0%.
Republican names with single-digit odds include Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley might appeal to traders looking for less obvious possibilities. President Trump is also in the mix. It would not be surprising if he publicly toyed with the idea of another run, even though the Constitution bars him from serving a third term.
Many of these potential candidates won’t make it to the first primary. Someone with little support now could become a leading contender by next summer. That’s part of what makes the early markets interesting: odds can shift after a speech, a misstep, or a book tour that seems timed to get attention.
Check back in a year. Some of these names may have surged, while others will have faded from the conversation.
