The 2024 election cycle is heating up as summer officially begins and several key political events worth noting are rapidly approaching.
This summer will see both President Biden and former President Trump officially become their respective parties’ presidential nominees, the first criminal conviction of a former commander in chief will be handed down and the first debate between Biden and Trump since 2020 will take place.
Here are five political events to watch this summer.
Presidential Debate
After months of uncertainty about whether Biden and Trump would actually take part in the traditional quadrennial debates that have been a staple of presidential elections for nearly 50 years, the candidates quickly agreed to hold two debates this summer.
The Commission on Presidential Debates, which has hosted such events every election year since 1988, had already scheduled three debates in the fall as usual, but the Biden and Trump campaigns agreed last month to hold two separate debates in June and September, effectively sidelining the commission immediately.
The first will be held less than two weeks away on June 27 in Atlanta, hosted by CNN, while the second will be hosted by ABC on September 10.
The event will mark the first time Biden and Trump have met to debate issues since their rivalry four years ago, when Trump frequently interrupted Biden and moderator Chris Wallace during the infamous first debate, which derailed the discussion.
A vice presidential debate is also a possibility, but the logistics still need to be worked out – Biden’s campaign accepted an offer from CBS, while Trump’s campaign accepted an offer from Fox News. The two campaigns are also divided on the possibility of additional debates.
In any case, debates are often a memorable part of elections and will likely occur earlier on the campaign calendar than in the past.
Trump, Hunter Biden Sentencing
Another unprecedented aspect of the 2024 presidential election is that one of the two leading candidates is the first former president to be convicted of a crime and the presumptive nominee of a major party.
Trump was convicted in the first of four criminal trials he now faces after a New York jury returned a verdict of guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The case involved payments that jurors determined Trump made to cover up an alleged extramarital affair he had before the 2016 election.
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced on July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention, where he will officially become the Republican nominee. Because it was a first-time offense and he was convicted of a misdemeanor, Trump is unlikely to face severe punishment, but the sentence is at the discretion of the judge and could include prison time.
While the other cases may not go to trial before Election Day, Democrats will likely try to use Trump’s conviction to prove he is unfit to be president.
At the same time, Trump’s allies may try to confuse things after President Biden’s son, Hunter, was convicted on Tuesday of three felony firearms charges. Hunter Biden is the first child of a sitting president to be convicted of a crime, and he too is likely to be sentenced this summer.
While the president is not involved in the case against Hunter and the charges against Hunter and President Trump are entirely separate, Republicans are trying to use legal challenges, including a tax case against Hunter that is scheduled for trial in September, to paint the Biden family as untrustworthy.
Nominating Conference
Presidential nominating conventions are typically the culmination of extravagant events for the major political parties, a multi-day gathering of party leaders.
By tradition, the Republican Party, which does not hold the presidency, will hold its convention first from July 15 to 18, followed by the Democrats from Aug. 19 to 22. But both conventions are likely to look at least a little different than usual.
Republican convention organizers are reportedly planning for the possibility that Trump may not be able to attend, given that the ruling was handed down just four days before the event. NBC report The outlet reported that preparations were underway for Trump to accept the nomination in Milwaukee or at his Mar-a-Lago estate, but a Trump campaign adviser told the outlet that the convention plans only included Trump accepting the nomination in person.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is in a tough spot as Biden may not be able to appear on the ballot in Ohio due to the state’s certification deadline of August 7. The Ohio State Assembly has yet to resolve the issue, and the DNC will effectively nominate Biden in a roll call vote before the convention.
Candidates historically see a slight boost in their poll numbers after their party conventions, which could be a boost for either candidate, at least temporarily.
Important House Primary Elections
The presidential primary season is over, but states across the country will be holding closely watched primaries for key congressional races throughout the summer.
Two of the most important primaries will take place within the next two weeks, with incumbents battling well-funded challengers to keep their seats.
Rep. Bob Good (R-VA), chairman of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, is running against state Sen. John McGuire on Tuesday in a nomination battle. Good is one of the most conservative members of the House, but President Trump has backed McGuire, in part because Good initially supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the presidential election and later backed President Trump.
A week later in New York, Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman will try to fend off a challenge from Westchester County Mayor George Latimer in an election for a House seat that has become a proxy battle between moderates and progressives.
Later in the summer, key Senate races will be decided that will determine which party will control the Senate. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Republican Kali Lake are expected to win their party’s nominations in late July, and in Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) are expected to run for Senate in the August primary.
An early surprise
Previous presidential elections, even less unprecedented than this one, have seen unexpected developments shake up the contest before the election. Polls continue to indicate that the 2024 election is likely to be close despite all that has happened so far, but any surprises affecting one or both candidates could certainly change that.
Such developments are historically known as “October surprises” that disrupt elections weeks before voters go to the polls, although they could of course happen sooner.
Biden and Trump are the oldest presumptive major-party nominees in U.S. history, and the chances of health problems that would force one or both candidates to withdraw from the race remain at least somewhat higher than has been the case for most other candidates who have run for president so far.
There are already U.S.-backed wars ongoing in Ukraine and Israel, but broader conflicts in these and elsewhere directly involving U.S. troops could distract public attention from current major policy debates.
Meanwhile, another entirely unexpected surprise, such as the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in March 2020, may end up dominating the election campaign.
