The Evolution of AI Warfare and its Implications
President Trump’s efforts to dismantle the Iranian regime are accelerating quickly, particularly through the innovative application of AI in warfare. Rather than replacing human decision-making, AI in the U.S. military is primarily focused on managing extensive data, which has long been a challenging aspect of conflict. Tools powered by AI are aiding military leaders in improving target selection, analyzing intercepted communications, assessing combat damage, and minimizing the time it takes to locate and neutralize terrorist threats with less collateral damage.
In an exclusive excerpt from his upcoming book, *Code Red: Left, Right, China, and the Race to Control AI*, author Wynton Hall discusses how advancements in AI and autonomous weapons are enhancing America’s capabilities to sustain peace through force, effectively redefining modern warfare.
Back in March 2020, Libya’s battlefields hinted at a troubling reality. Reports indicated that autonomous drones manufactured in Turkey “cornered and engaged” retreating forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar without any human intervention.
A United Nations report detailed that these autonomous lethal devices were “programmed to attack targets without the need for a data connection” with operators—essentially embodying a true “shoot, forget, find” capability.
This wasn’t merely a theoretical exercise from military analysts; it was a real-world scenario where machines identified and targeted human beings autonomously.
The specific weapon in question was not a rudimentary drone cobbled together with household materials but rather a sophisticated quadcopter known as Kargu-2, designed by the Turkish firm STM. This weapon is capable of multiple warhead setups and executes precision strikes using autonomous navigation. It also employs a day and night automatic target recognition system.
According to researchers at West Point, this system was “designed as an anti-personnel weapon” that uses machine learning for target selection.
Murat İkinci, CEO of STM, indicated that the Kargu-2s come with facial recognition features and can operate in swarms of up to 20 units for coordinated attacks.
While it is unclear if the Libyan conflicts led to any casualties, drone warfare specialist Zachary Callenborn pointed out in *Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists* that the UN report “strongly suggests” there were losses. If confirmed, it would mark a significant turn in which AI-based weapons directly combat and kill humans.
The incident in Libya provided insight into potential risks associated with autonomous warfare. Israel’s subsequent response to Hamas’s attack, where 1,200 innocent lives were lost on October 7, 2023, illustrated the immediate, real-world applications of AI in military operations. The Israel Defense Forces have implemented three AI systems—“The Gospel,” “Lavender,” and “Where’s Daddy?”—which collectively identify terrorists for swift eradication.
The Gospel organizes a list of potential terror sites, Lavender analyzes surveillance data to create a prioritized target list, while the ominously named “Where’s Daddy?” tracks enemies via mobile phone signals to their homes, ultimately leading to airstrikes.
This trio of AI systems has significantly increased the speed of target identification and operational protocols. Tal Mimran, a former IDF General Counsel, noted that previously, a team of around 20 agents would take approximately 250 days to compile 200 to 250 targets, whereas AI can now accomplish this task within a week.
This situation underscores a fundamental divide in perspectives between political factions. Those leaning left typically assume that conflicts can be resolved through dialogue and disarmament, often attributing the existence of real evil to human error. Conversely, right-wing individuals maintain a more skeptical outlook regarding those in power, believing in the inherent existence of evil that human efforts cannot entirely eradicate. Nonetheless, they also recognize the good in America itself.
The reality of the AI battlefield extends beyond immediate warfare concerns; it fundamentally impacts national security. The U.S. has historically depended on leading-edge military technology to overcome challenges and safeguard its populace. As weaponry evolves, so too must military strategies adapt to counter adversaries equipped with AI capabilities.
The surge in AI-related spending reflects the urgency of these adaptations, with federal contracts rising nearly 1,200% in just one year—from $355 million in 2022 to $4.6 billion in 2023.
This increase is largely attributed to the Department of Defense’s spending, which has seen its contracts more than double to over $550 million. However, this doesn’t imply that conventional military hardware will be discarded; instead, it shows that AI will increasingly become integrated into both current and future defense programs, ensuring that the U.S. maintains its strategic advantage.
For instance, consider the Bullfrog, an AI-enabled robotic weapon system equipped with a 7.62 mm M240 machine gun mounted in a smart turret.
The advantages of AI machine guns include superior firepower against drone threats compared to that of typical military personnel, coupled with a reasonable cost. However, as these technologies become less expensive, they may fall into the hands of malicious actors.
Ultimately, the broad accessibility of lethal AI weapons poses a challenge; the capabilities once restricted to superpowers are increasingly becoming available to a multitude of global players.
Politicians from both parties are recognizing the significance of this shift. Senator Mark Warner (D-Virginia) has cautioned that the spread of these technologies dramatically lessens the barriers for foreign governments to apply them in their military pursuits. More concerning is that many of these innovations are developed by U.S. companies and then repurposed by foreign entities. While reverse engineering U.S. military capabilities is not a new phenomenon, the escalating accessibility and efficiency of AI systems could lead to dire consequences for global security.
The reality is that AI will significantly shape how nations defend themselves and conduct warfare. President Vladimir Putin has articulated this perspective, stating: “Artificial intelligence is the future not only for Russia, but for all of humanity… Whoever becomes the leader in this field will become the ruler of the world.”
Historically, conservatives have understood that strength fosters peace, a principle that has influenced national security policies from Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump. As Reagan famously said, “Wars are fought not when the forces of freedom are strong, but when they are weak.”
This insight is profoundly relevant to the threats posed by AI today. Margaret Thatcher noted in her eulogy for Reagan that his initiatives to enhance the military’s capabilities provided the technological edge necessary to secure victory in the Cold War without engaging in direct conflict.
Similarly, President Trump emphasized military strength as a pathway to achieving peace, reflecting on his administration’s achievements in avoiding new wars.
The message is clear: equipping military personnel with advanced training and technology is essential for maintaining peace.
As AI technologies become more affordable and prevalent, U.S. leaders must work tirelessly to leverage AI in ways that enhance intelligence-gathering, bolster cybersecurity, elevate battlefield readiness, and address the challenges posed by adversarial AI systems. Specifically, there are four critical national security challenges imposed by the rise of AI:
- Autonomous arms race
- Emergence of terrorism utilizing AI
- Gap between technological advancements and national security imperatives
- Coordination and containment issues related to AI
These challenges are not exhaustive, but how we approach them will greatly influence our ability to maintain strength in peacemaking. Should we lose our military edge, we may enter a chaotic landscape marked by widespread, cost-effective AI-driven attacks.
