Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz once wrote, “The genius of a strategist is to identify the decisive point and concentrate everything there.'' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy emphasized this point at the beginning of the new year. interview Together with The Economist, he emphasized that Crimea and the Black Sea will be the focus of the Ukrainian military. Isolating Crimea and reducing the position of Russian forces in Crimea is “very important for us, because that's how we reduce attacks from the Crimean region,” Zelenskiy said.
Ukraine may not have achieved a decisive breakthrough on land in 2023, but its war at sea was a huge success. Thanks to a relentless sea-air campaign that combined maritime drones and British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, Ukraine was able to inflict significant punishment on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, forcing Russian forces to retreat to the naval fortress of Sevastopol. After the destruction of the Novocherkassk landing ship in late December, British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps praised the success of the operation. announcement Russia has reportedly lost 20 percent of its Black Sea fleet in just the past four months.
Ukraine has effectively ended Russia's blockade of Odesa and resumed exports of grain and other raw materials from the strategic Black Sea port.Bridget Brink, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine announced “Since August, 400 ships carrying 13 million tons of cargo have passed through the Black Sea Humanitarian Corridor. This is an important achievement as Ukraine continues to feed the world.”
The next step in the Black Sea is for Western powers to help Kiev target Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, and cut off Russia's logistical lifeline to Russian forces operating in southern Ukraine. Two retired American generals have repeatedly emphasized the urgency of helping Ukraine achieve this goal. According to former European Army Commander Ben Hodges, Crimea is “Defining Terrain of War'' Philip Breedlove, former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, agreed: “If Ukraine is able to attack Crimea broadly, persistently, and precisely, Russia will “We will have no choice but to reconsider our stance on this,” he said. Attack everything, attack it repeatedly, destroy it in detail,” he told me.
One of the keys to disrupting Russia's logistics lifeline to Russian troops in Crimea is the 12-mile-long Kerch Strait Bridge. Its destruction would significantly reduce the Russian military's supply capabilities in southern Ukraine and significantly weaken the Russian military. That could give Ukrainian armored forces a chance to make a breakthrough. slovikin line If it reaches the Sea of Azov and succeeds, it will cut the Russian army in half. Lobotnye's Ukrainian front is currently only 110 miles from the Azov coast.
Ukraine has attacked the Kerch Strait Bridge twice, most recently in July last year. maritime drone attack This forced Moscow to temporarily suspend road and rail traffic across the bridge. In an interview with The Economist, President Zelenskiy begged Western countries to help destroy Ukraine's bridges by providing Kiev with German-made Taurus cruise missiles, which have a range of 300 miles. The plan was clearly planned by someone with the support of the Biden administration. , have Rejected This is to overcome concerns that the war may escalate.
President Zelenskiy understands that the Taurus is the perfect weapon to destroy the bridge, which has already been weakened by previous attacks. Designed as a bunker-destroying cruise missile, the Taurus can be air-launched by the Ukrainian Su-24 and has already successfully used the Storm Shadow effectively, and if equipped with a secondary charge. , which can cause catastrophic damage to any structure made of reinforced concrete. The bridge will no longer function.
As Clausewitz reminded us nearly two centuries ago, it is up to military strategists to identify and focus on the “decisive points.” President Zelenskiy said that the decisive terrain would be Crimea, and that the German Taurus cruise missile could be the only weapon that the West would provide to help Ukraine destroy the Kerch Strait Bridge; He urged us to keep in mind that 2024 will be the turning point in the war.
Glenn E. Howard is a past president of the Jamestown Foundation.
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