The calculus for Democrats is clear — Biden needs to step aside, now 

president biden Stated If Donald Trump hadn't run for the Republican nomination, he might not have sought a second term. This admission indicates that he does not want to run in 2024 and likely won't serve in the White House for another four years. He also believes he will beat Trump in a rematch of the 2020 election, but others may as well.

Statements like this justify the need for someone else to become the Democratic nominee, regardless of who the Republican nominee becomes.

In addition to the president, there are two other people currently vying for the Democratic nomination.

dean phillipsThe Minnesota congressman has supported Biden throughout his presidential term and has been vocal about the need for change. In response, he announced his candidacy, much to the chagrin of the Democratic Party establishment. Marianne WilliamsonThe author and political activist is also seeking his party's nomination.

Given the structure of the election, it remains unlikely that either she or Phillips will win. caucuses and primaries Decide who will represent the party.

So, here are the potential candidates who are patiently waiting behind the scenes for Biden to withdraw voluntarily (or, if unforeseen circumstances arise, unintentionally end his position as the Democratic nominee) Who is that?

new jersey state senator Cory Booker He is well-positioned to run for the White House.he was a candidate 2020 nominations, therefore interested in serving. The website exists, but Cory Booker to be president in 2024, indicating support for his candidacy, although the site clearly states that it is not endorsed by Cory Booker himself. But his very existence is evidence enough that he is willing and able to run if given the chance.

gavin newsomeCalifornia's governor has made it clear he has no interest in running for president. I fully support President Biden's candidacy for a second term.. This is the necessary party line that all Democrats who ultimately aim to win the White House must express. However, if Mr. Biden withdraws, Mr. Newson could easily shift his focus to the campaign without contradicting his previous statements.his recent Debate with Ron DeSantis It provides a mock rehearsal for the big event that may await him.

Gretchen WhitmerThe governor of Michigan also made the announcement. She has no interest in challenging President Biden and supports his candidacy. Still, her lack of challenge and her readiness to run even if Biden withdraws will leave her available if the situation changes. fox news have accused her (and Newsom) of running a “shadow” campaign, but given that Fox News is no friend of the Democratic Party, their statements should be taken with a grain of salt. However, given the circumstances surrounding the president and his reelection, their statements are plausible.

The politics of who will be the Democratic presidential candidate must be shrouded in secrecy. But risk management 101 requires Democrats to be prepared to change course if or when Biden is unable to run. There is too much at stake for the party to risk Mr. Biden stepping down in his speech on the 11th.^th With an hour left, they will compete for a replacement, disrupting the election.

Considering that, majority of independents and Democratic voters want an option other than Biden or Trump, and the two parties are playing a game of chicken to see who pivots to the more electable option first. This reduces risk, as Republicans have to rely on caucuses and primaries to decide on their nominees this term, and could nominate Trump despite the drama surrounding him. It gives Democrats a distinct advantage by providing more electable candidates who can rally independent support. Voters in key battleground states.

To Biden's defense, he is not thinking about another four-year term, but rather seeing it through to the election and then being able to step down in favor of the vice president. That's the compromise Democrats are considering, which could feature Booker, Newsom or Whitmer as their running mate.If you think about it, this seems like a plausible path. kamala harris likeability.

What is indisputable is that the current situation is too dangerous for Democrats and that managing such risks requires change. It's unclear when those changes will occur, whether on the ticket or as Biden's running mate. However, considering the risk calculations, the need for such changes has become certain. Indeed, for Democrats, the question is no longer “if” but “when.”

Sheldon H. JacobsonPh.D. is a professor of computer science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. A data scientist, he uses his expertise in data-driven, risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy.