It would be like playing the Super Bowl at Churchill Downs.
The Stanley Cup Finals were held at Fenway Park.
Running the Indianapolis 500 at the old Boston Garden.
The 2024 presidential campaign will not be played out in all the familiar places.
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Former President Trump's presidential test could be in various courthouses from New York to Atlanta.
But House Republicans want the 2024 presidential certification of President Biden to be in the halls of Congress.
House Republicans didn't accomplish much in 2023. But in mid-December, House Republicans finally found the votes to formally launch an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The move, coming in an election year, could reveal whether voters accept Republican claims that Biden and Hunter Biden and their families are hiding something about their overseas business entanglements and financial dealings. There is sex.
Or, the maneuver could reveal whether Republicans have come up with a blank slate.
There's also a risk that voters will think Republicans are simply orchestrating a less-than-shadowy campaign to hurt President Biden politically in 2024.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) gradually began moving towards a House impeachment inquiry in late June and early July. But Mr. McCarthy did not have the votes to formally launch an investigation. And we all know what happened to McCarthy.
There were two camps of Republicans in the House regarding impeachment. The question is not whether the House should impeach Biden, but how long the impeachment inquiry will take.
Republican presidential candidate and former President Trump spoke at a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, last month. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
Some Republicans argued last summer that they could wrap up the investigation quickly and decide whether President Biden should be impeached by the fall. They were worried that things would drag on in an election year. The other group had no set schedule. Lawmakers appear determined to let any investigation take its course.
And 2024 is a presidential election year. Republicans spent precious time into 2023 fighting over who should be speaker of the House and potential conflicts with the government shutdown and debt ceiling. So is there a possibility of an unexpected impeachment in 2024?
And therein lies the possibility of trouble.
Of course, an impeachment inquiry is dangerous for a sitting president. But historically, it has been just as dangerous for the party conducting the impeachment inquiry.
Let's think about it for a moment. What political benefit has any political party gained from impeachment? So far? That includes the impeachment of President Andrew Johnson.
What do Democrats have to show with former President Trump's second impeachment? There are few results. Trump is seen as the Republican Party's nominee, yelling back more forcefully than ever after the Capitol riot.
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What did House Republicans gain from impeaching former President Clinton in 1998? Well, the Republicans nearly lost their House majority. And in 1998, the Republican Party was in turmoil over two House speakers. Clinton's impeachment marked the end for former Georgia House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican. Former Rep. Bob Livingston (R-Louisiana), who was expected to succeed Mr. Gingrich, did not become speaker. On the eve of the House impeaching former President Clinton for conduct related to his affair with Monica Lewinsky, it was revealed that Livingston had also been having an affair. Livingstone then stepped aside.
That's why impeachment is so risky. They often backfire. And despite all the turmoil, the political landscape remains the same.
“Without evidence, it's hard to convince suburban voters who sometimes vote Republican and sometimes Democratic that Republicans are doing the right thing in the House,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary in Washington. I can’t.” “Far-right conservatives in safe seats will want to move forward with this impeachment inquiry, but the reality is that doing so would very likely cost them the Republican majority.”
It is unclear whether or how House Republicans will actually impeach President Biden.
It's about mathematics.
On January 6, 2021, a mob storms the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, DC. (AP Photo/John Minchillo/File)
Republicans start 2024 with a 220-213 advantage in the House. The already slim Republican majority could shrink even further. Republicans cannot lose more than three votes in a roll call and still cannot pass anything without support from the other side.
Congressman Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) will resign in mid-January. House Minority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) is on leave until February to recover from cancer treatment. This means that Republicans will effectively have 218 operational votes in the 432-member House in late January. He could lose two votes in any roll call. Otherwise, the Democrats will win.
Therefore, it is unclear whether Republicans will be able to secure the votes to impeach President Biden.
This represents a worst-case scenario for Republicans.
There are three problems here.
If Republicans fail to impeach President Biden, conservatives will panic.
That's because Republicans have debated impeachment numerous times since President Biden took office. They potentially raised the bar and underachieved. Their voters could turn their tail on them.
Then there's the impeachment vote in mid-December. The average voter doesn't understand the details of “impeachment” or the difference between an investigation and actually impeaching a president. But all House Republicans are at risk, including those in battleground districts and the 18 districts won by President Biden. No matter how clever they try to vote, that vote alone could be enough to defeat many Republicans in the general election.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said, “The formal vote on the impeachment inquiry in the House of Representatives… [Republicans] To move on to the next necessary step. ” (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Finally, imagine that Republicans do not impeach President Biden, but keep impeachment on the table with regular hearings and days of closed-door depositions. People are wondering why the Republican Party is in limbo. Their supporters are dissatisfied with the failure to impeach the president. Skeptics ask what Republicans are spending their time on.
It can be a lose-lose-lose scenario.
Never mind that Republicans will be rushing headlong into chaos in Congress with a potential government shutdown later this month and later in February.And at all there is nothing Despite weeks of negotiations, a conclusion has been reached on securing the border. This has hampered the announcement of potential aid to Ukraine and Israel. Republicans are tying President Biden's international aid package to border security. That might work politically. But now it appears that all ways to raise the necessary funds for Ukraine and Israel are in jeopardy.
This is why Republicans are now eyeing a possible impeachment inquiry against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. And Republicans plan to charge Hunter Biden with contempt of Congress for failing to subpoena him for a deposition last month.
Charges of contempt of Congress open up two paths.
Republicans will lament Hunter Biden's failure to respond to subpoenas. However, McCarthy, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Scott Perry (R-Pennsylvania), and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) all plan to return to the Capitol in 2022. ignored subpoenas from the House committee's investigation into the riot;
However, it is difficult for the House to enforce subpoenas against sitting members of committees.
However, if the House of Representatives holds Hunter Biden in contempt, it will be interesting to see whether the Justice Department will prosecute him. The Justice Department has indicted former Trump aides Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro for failing to respond to subpoenas. If the Justice Department does not prosecute, Republicans will argue that the Biden Justice Department is protecting the president's son. Former President Trump will claim he was treated unfairly in the prosecution by Special Counsel Jack Smith.
Therefore, there are two venues on the 2024 campaign trail.
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yes. States such as Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and New Hampshire could determine who becomes president.
But the battlegrounds are in capitols and courtrooms across the United States.
