Xi Jinping: Chess Master of the Indo-Pacific Board Game

Camera flashes illuminated the room as Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands with President Donald Trump at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, on October 30, 2025. What message did this send to the world? Was it a sign of growing stability? Perhaps a step toward normalized relations between China and the US?

Not everyone was easily convinced. It seemed like Xi was making another calculated move near the end of the game. While Washington seemed relieved that tensions had eased between the two leaders, the Chinese government was executing a clever strategy.

What if Xi’s unexpected visit to South Korea wasn’t just about business or diplomacy? What if he aimed to exploit a moment when the US appeared indifferent toward South Korea, essentially isolating it and drawing it into China’s sphere of influence? Could this be a pivotal and successful maneuver in the larger Indo-Pacific strategy?

Golden Window

Xi Jinping, known for rarely traveling abroad, clearly sought strategic advantages during his time in Gyeongju. It appeared that Beijing sees 2025 as a critical “golden window” to weaken the US-South Korea alliance. South Korea is currently mired in political strife and grappling with leadership issues. Xi’s direct engagement with the US president in South Korea seemed to suggest that the Korean Peninsula’s issues were merely superpower disputes, relegating South Korea to the role of a passive observer.

Furthermore, this visit underscored Beijing’s superiority. It appeared to send a message to South Korea’s political elites that their future lies with China, not the US. The growing pro-China sentiment in South Korea had something to rally around, bolstered by Xi’s presence. His visit could potentially empower those advocating for policies that shift South Korea away from the US-Korea alliance, particularly if it could weaken the long-standing agreement that maintained peace in the region. This was framed as “balanced diplomacy,” but the underlying aim was to create space for South Korea, free from US influence.

Silent Bargain

Concerning trends suggest that the US and China may have tacitly agreed to a “silent bargain.” The US appears focused on achieving temporary stability abroad to address domestic issues, while China seeks time to navigate its economic problems and stave off sanctions. This unspoken ceasefire could create significant risks for South Korea. As the US retreats to “manage” this relationship, China might ramp up its aggressive tactics toward South Korea. Without a strong US response, Beijing could further infiltrate and manipulate the Korean landscape, advancing its ambitions without unified opposition from the West.

Country with Problems

South Korea is entering a politically sensitive phase, caught between national security concerns, economic fragility, and the world’s lowest birth rate. China is keenly aware of this turmoil and is leveraging these challenges to its advantage. A glance at the strategic plans of both countries reveals a stark contrast: China adheres to a long-term strategy, while South Korea is often reactive, driven by short election cycles. The Chinese government exploits this dynamic, executing covert political campaigns to influence the next South Korean government in ways that favor its own interests, gradually undermining the US-South Korea alliance.

Threat of Invasion

This issue transcends Korean domestic politics; it pertains to the security dynamics of Northeast Asia, heavily dependent on military strength within the first island chain—from Japan to Taiwan, Philippines, and beyond. If South Korea were to capitulate to Chinese pressure and adopt a neutral stance, the sustainability of US military presence in the region would be jeopardized. Such a “silent bargain” might provide short-lived peace for Washington but could result in America losing its most critical forward base in the Pacific. Without South Korean bases, the US would be forced to rely more heavily on Japan and Guam, significantly limiting its regional influence and ability to defend its allies.

Gyeongju Trap

The geopolitical landscape following the Gyeongju Summit can be quite misleading. While official statements emphasize cooperation, the underlying reality is that China is strategically positioning itself for a checkmate with South Korea, aiming to pull it fully into its sphere. The US shouldn’t fall into complacency due to Xi’s friendly demeanor. Caution is necessary regarding China’s ambitions for long-term dominance rather than mere coexistence. Washington must recognize what has been dubbed the “Gyeongju trap,” a strategic maneuver by China during the APEC gathering.

Now is not the moment for complacent “silent bargains.” Instead, it’s crucial for the US to fortify the US-South Korea alliance before time runs out. Active support for South Korea in resisting Chinese pressure is paramount. There’s talk about existential crises in Europe, but should the US withdraw from Korea after a 70-year alliance, the rich cultural heritage of Korea might also be at risk.