As 81-year-old Joe Biden runs for re-election, Democratic donors are already considering his political successor. Who will it be? Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom? The relationship between Harris and Newsom is detailed in my new book.Amateur Hour: Kamala Harris in the White House”
The 2024 election is nine months away, but the 2028 Democratic primary has already begun. Who showed up to the campaign trail last week as Biden supported changing Democratic Party rules to make South Carolina the nation’s first Democratic presidential primary?
If Biden survives and is re-elected in November, there is a very real possibility that Harris will become the 47th president.
Gavin Newsom claimed he was standing by just to support Biden. Nevertheless, the California governor rubs shoulders with some of the Palmetto State’s most prominent Democrats and appears to communicate frequently with rap legend and entrepreneur Snoop Dogg, appealing to a group of primarily black voters. It made me happy. (But for some reason Newsom didn’t mention it) Drafting They stole to persuade people to support lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic. )
Nevertheless, Newsom embraced Biden in an almost comical way after finally ending speculation that Biden would challenge the president in this year’s primaries.
“Who in their right mind would want to run when you have someone as respected as the sitting president of our country?” Newsom told an MSNBC reporter after a campaign appearance. When asked about his own political ambitions, he quickly shifted gears and spoke passionately about Biden. “Let’s talk about loyalty,” he added. “I would go to the ends of the earth for this man, I really would. I’m not making that up.”
By delivering messages like this, Newsom already seems more comfortable promoting President Biden than Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris has tried to pretend in interviews that Biden is “in great spirits” and “tireless at work,” but her claims ring hollow when Biden is only a breath or two away from becoming president. hear.
decades-old rivalry
The impending race between Mr. Newsom and Ms. Harris has been a hallmark of the past decade in California politics. Both are disciples of legendary former state Assemblyman and two-term San Francisco mayor Willie Brown. The same year Harris was elected San Francisco district attorney, Newsom replaced Brown as mayor. Since then, they have advanced in celebrity and donor circles to boost their political prospects.
Sources I spoke to in California say Mr. Newsom and Ms. Harris are “frenemies,” friendly and sweet in public but quietly undermining each other behind the scenes, each driven by political egos. They say they are preparing for an ugly conflict. The Cold War sometimes produced friction, such as when Harris sided with activists protesting a settlement with banks during the 2008 mortgage crisis.
California Democrats have been watching nervously as both Harris and Newsom prepare for the 2016 gubernatorial race after Jerry Brown’s final term. But suddenly, four-term Sen. Barbara Boxer announced his retirement, giving Ms. Harris a chance to avoid a one-on-one political knife fight with Mr. Newsom. she accepted it.
The rest is history. Harris ran and won for the U.S. Senate, and Newsom won for governor. But the inevitable clash was only postponed as the two men competed for the leadership of the Democratic Party.
Democrats are scared
Harris and Newsom are not without political baggage. Harris was once touted in the media as the next Barack Obama, but suffered setbacks during her first presidential campaign. After about a year and $40 million, Harris ended her campaign before the Iowa caucuses began. She also failed to inspire the nation, as she frequently gets caught up in word salad whenever she goes off-script as Vice President.
Mr. Newsom, meanwhile, is carrying the burden of ravaging the state with tough coronavirus restrictions while the state’s largest cities are overrun with homeless camps and crime. But Golden State voters didn’t seem to oppose lockdowns when they had a chance to recall Newsom in 2021. The recall failed, and Newsom was easily re-elected in 2022. But California is not America.
The future of the Newsom-Harris rivalry depends largely on Joe Biden’s health. Democrats fear that the aging Biden will not be ready in time for November. If that happens, expect a nasty fight between donors and party elites over who should replace him.
We all know who is the best candidate to run against Donald Trump. Harris isn’t at the top of most elites’ lists, or even on them. Many prominent Democrats in Washington, D.C., and numerous donors in America’s wealthiest cities are completely charmed by Newsom’s talent. Harris has let them down, but few criticize her for fear of being branded racist or sexist.
The truth is, if Biden survives and wins re-election in November, it’s very likely that Harris will become the 47th president of the United States, but at some point during his second term, his family will eventually consider stepping down. If it is acknowledged that the United States has arrived, it is very likely that Harris will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States.
If Harris seizes power, she could even run for re-election in 2028, which is currently unthinkable. I understand your skepticism. But no one ever imagined that Biden, a laughing stock in Washington when he was vice president, would run for president, much less that he would win and run for a second term. I want you to remember.
If Harris runs in 2028, she would also have the advantage of running in the South Carolina primary instead of Iowa and New Hampshire. The same voters who saved Biden’s 2020 campaign were either Harris, the nation’s first black female vice president, who proved herself to be a powerless amateur, or a glib governor weighed down by left-wing policies. Mr. Newsom may be asked which side he chooses.
