This game will be all about how the Lions protect their other scrambling QB, Jaden Daniels. Quite simply, Jaden Daniels is the engine that keeps the Commanders' offense going. Whether it's his steadily improving golf skills as a passer or his strength as a runner, the offenses of coaches depend on his abilities.
There are two aspects of this matchup that I'm particularly interested in. Daniels scrambles and targets over the middle of the field. Against man coverage, Daniels has a 12.1% scramble rate and 0.13 EPA per play. He's a very dynamic force as a runner when he can punish man coverage, and the commanders have built this offense to allow Daniels to loosen it up as a runner every time he sees the lane. . Lions aren't that bad against scrambles! He ranks 19th in the league in EPA per play on scrambles and 20th in positive play rate. However, they lead the remaining teams in the playoffs in Cover 1 percentage, leaving a slight gap for runners like Daniels in Cover 1.
Still, I think I'm more concerned about the Lions' pass defense in Cover 1 against this team, especially the linebackers. Daniels hasn't put up numbers in coverage games this season (ranked 19th in EPA total), but against Tampa he showed even more ability to create holes in the middle of the field. He threw passes against Cover 1 for over routes against opposing corners in Tampa Bay, thus forcing WR Terry McLaurin into over routes a lot. I love how McLaurin moves this route to the inside and steps this route to create more separation.
As for Detroit, they have three players in circulation: LBs Alex Anzalone and Jack Campbell, and CB Amik Robertson. Anzalone returned in Week 18 in a blowout win over the Minnesota Vikings, playing a steady role in the middle of the defense, especially in pass coverage. He was tasked with guarding tight end TJ Hockenson, but his physicality really frustrated the Vikings tight end. I think that will be against Zach Ertz, who Daniels really trusts in the passing game. Sure, he was a little easier to grab, but his physicality made a big difference in that game, throwing off the timing of his attacks.
For me, Campbell is interesting because he could potentially spy on Daniels in this match. He's been really good this season, but he's definitely better forward as a blitzer or spy. Now that Anzalone is back in the game, he has a little more freedom to roam. Robertson will be playing against McLaurin more often against the Commanders, and his temperament as a corner and experience guarding Justin Jefferson could come in handy in this game. It will be interesting to see how this Lions team protects Daniels and the Commanders, who present many challenges to what Detroit wants to do.
