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Quick note: I’ve never been to Opening Day (baseball for beginners!). This Thursday marks the St. Louis Cardinals’ season opener, and I’m planning to attend. Consequently, there won’t be a Top Stocks edition published this Thursday evening. The next one will come out on Sunday.
So, that didn’t resolve anything!
Sure, the short-term rally continued, with Russell showing gains for the fourth consecutive day—but did it feel like a significant rally? Not really, and I don’t think I need to elaborate.
Russell hasn’t hit the green for five days in a row since bouncing back from his lows in November, so I’m curious to see if he’ll make it one more day. I don’t think we’re in overbought territory just yet.
The transport sector was moving well. Interesting, though—when oil prices rise, they seem to perform better than today when oil was down. This marks the third straight day of gains for transport. Honestly, I haven’t seen them in the green for four days since December.
The banking index has climbed again, scoring gains for five days running—quite a trend since there hasn’t been much action since December. Additionally, the SOX index is up for three days, which you might recall hasn’t happened for four days since December.
I mention these consecutive days because it shows how by Friday many of these sectors could feel short-term overbought, especially if Thursday or Friday brings another green day.
Today, trading volume was quite light, but I can’t see that lasting. Tuesday will be the last day of the first quarter, and I anticipate we’ll see some rebalancing, which should push volumes up.
On that note, the volume indicator below is currently sitting at 48%.
Lastly, Investors Intelligence reports a bullish rating at 39%. That’s the same level they were at last May and June. At the lowest point in April 2025, it dipped into the low 20s. That was panic. Now, it just feels generally depressed.
Bearish sentiment comprises about 25%. Last April, it was over 35%. I wouldn’t describe this as panic, but I do think a shift in sentiment can be a good sign for the market. We’ve certainly worked hard to alter our feelings.
new ideas
I want to revisit Amazon (AMZN)—I raised this question last week. I mentioned that as long as it holds above 205, the stock should be fine. So far, it has held up. I think that points to it being a worthwhile destination.
We’ve also been looking at some chemical stocks recently—think LYB and DOW. Plus, Air Products (APD)—if it surpasses that 295 level, that would be something.
today’s indicator
The volume indicator is currently at 48%.
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Axon Enterprise (AXON) has closed the gap from February, and there’s support around the 440 mark, so a rebound seems possible—but honestly, the chart doesn’t impress me. There’s no strong basis for discussion. If it lingers around here for a few weeks, it might improve, but for now it looks like just a short-term rally.
Oracle (ORCL) appears slightly oversold, and support lies in the 140-145 range. A rebound is likely, but that’s about it. Evidence is lacking, and the support feels tentative. It’s really short-term as far as I can see at this moment.
If you look at Microsoft (MSFT), you could see it dip to the 360-365 area. It’s still a good idea to buy for trading purposes since it’s likely to bounce back from that level, which will probably create a small target range. Plus, it’s well oversold. It might even close that small gap from last April.
Related: Rivian and Uber deal—will the new R2 model boost stock prices?
