While developed countries have reduced coal use in recent years, the world is still not ready to kick coal poisoning. Asia's developing markets are meeting the surge in electricity demand by increasing coal-fired power generation.
Despite the retirement of coal fired power in the US, lower demand for coal in Europe, and the end of 142 coal electricity in the UK, global coal demand reached another record high last year. And consumption is set to stay at these high levels for a few more years, or even at the newest ever high.
The emerging Asian economy led by China and India has maintained global coal demand growth over the last decade. They support their respective renewable energy booms with 24/7 baseload power and plan additional coal-fired capabilities to avoid power crunches and blackouts that they suffered in the early 2020s .
Global coal demand at record highs
Data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows that global operating coal capacity has increased by 13% since 2015. show. In 2015, when the country signed a contract with the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the world added 259 GW of coal capacity. As of the end of 2024, total operating coal capacity reached a record high of 2,175 gigawatts (GW), according to GEM's Global Coal Plant Tracker.
Global coal demand surged to another record high in 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in December it expects global coal consumption to level through 2027.
The previous record was a year ago. In 2023, demand reached records at the time, with the IEA forecasting flat consumption in 2024. They were wrong.
Despite the plateau's forecast, global coal consumption could continue to increase this year and for years to come.
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The plateau of global coal demand will depend heavily on China, the IEA said in December.
“Weather factors, especially in China, the world's largest coal consumer, will have a major impact on the short-term trends in coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand increases will also be very important in the medium term.” I said keisuke sadamori, director of IEA energy markets and security.
Global electricity demand is set to jump in the coming years thanks to advances in AI and data center investments.
The rise in electricity demand for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be one of the highest levels in the last 20 years. I said In the middle of 2024.
Coal retirements in developing economies may slow down, particularly if growth in renewable energy capacity is not sufficient to meet the increased electricity demand, and could further increase coal demand in emerging Asian markets.
Two worlds of coal consumption
Solar power will continue to drive the growth of US power generation over the next two years, but coal generation remains unchanged by approximately 640 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2025 and 2026. (EIA) I said last month. American coal generation was 647 million kWh in 2024.
The US coal retirement is set to remove 6% or 11 GW of coal production capacity from the US electricity sector this year. In 2026, another 2%, or 4 GW coal capacity, will be removed, with EIA forecasts forecasts. Last year, coal retirement represents approximately 3 GW of electricity capacity removed from the power system, which was the lowest coal capacity he retired since 2011.
Throughout the Atlantic, last year saw a monumental moment in the UK's electricity system, with the last remaining coal power plant switch in the country. The Ratcliffe-on-Soar factory was closed at the end of September, ending the UK's 142 coal-fired power generation, making the UK the first G7 country.
In the European Union, solar power oversaw coal generation in 2024, taking over 11% of solar power, coal fell below 10% for the first time, data from clean energy think tank Ember Showed.
But Cole, the world's largest and second-largest coal user in China and India, respectively, is still King despite the surge in renewable power facilities.
China's thermal power generation, which is dominated by coal, rose 1.5% in 2024 to a record high of 6.34 trillion kWh from a year ago.
This year, China's coal transport and distribution associations said demand and production of coal in China will continue to increase, with fuel being set to remain the backbone of the country's energy system.
Coal use is also increasing in India – demand rose by more than 5% in 2024 to 1.3 billion tonnes. This is the level that has previously reached only China for each IEA data.
India has cut coal imports because it aims to hike domestic produce to source more coal at home. With the industry expanding and demand expected to skyrocket, India plans to use more of its lower quality domestic coal to meet its consumption needs.
By Tsvetana Paraskova on ofprice.com
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