The success of Harris’ policies depends on Congress.
Chad Pergram, senior congressional correspondent for Fox News, reported on America’s Newsroom that Vice President Kamala Harris’ policy plans depend on the balance of power in Congress.
Congress doesn’t reconvene until Sept. 9, and the only thing the House and Senate absolutely must do for the rest of the year is fund the government.
The problem is, Congress doesn’t have time until December 31st.
The government’s fiscal year ends on October 1st.
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As always, there will be a real adventure between now and October, maybe the end of the year or even 2025, as Congress tries to avoid a government shutdown.
The House Freedom Caucus has issued an ultimatum. The most conservative caucus in the House of Representatives sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, calling for a simple renewal of the current budget at current levels (known as a continuing resolution (CR)) until “early 2025.” The Freedom Caucus is banking on former President Donald Trump returning to the White House, not to mention the assumption that Republicans will keep the House and flip the Senate. Recent polls have shown that Vice President Kamala Harris is starting to gain ground. The chances of Republicans keeping the House are uncertain at best and may tilt toward the Democrats. Political prognosticators have long projected Republicans taking control of the Senate, but that’s not set in stone.
The Freedom Caucus criticized House Speaker Mike Johnson in March for working with Democrats on the budget bill and urged Republicans not to support the measure. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
The Freedom Caucus believes that Republicans can seize major powers in government and enact the spending package they want next year. Johnson certainly has this possibility in mind. And it might be wise to do so, given the tumultuous nature of the House Republican Conference. More on this later. But many Republicans, especially those on the Appropriations Committee, are not on board with the Freedom Caucus’ strategy. And those same Republicans doubt that Senate Democrats would follow through on such a plan. In short, some Republicans and many Democrats want a short-term budget proposal until mid-November or December, then consider bills individually and then pass them all together as a package by the end of the calendar year.
That way, nobody has to worry about funding the government until October 1st next year.
That’s exactly the concern among conservatives.
First, many Freedom Caucus members dislike the notion of an omnibus spending bill, even if there are several “minibus” spending bills with a handful of appropriations measures woven into each legislative vehicle. Second, with President Biden still in the White House and Democrats in control of the Senate, conservatives believe that a long-term CR that lasts until the new year would shorten the lifespan of liberal and progressive spending policies. Republicans could block these with a CR in January that lasts until then. But if lawmakers were to adopt a short-term CR until late in the fall and then put together all of their spending plans at once before handing the keys to a new Congress and a new President next year, Democratic spending priorities would be preserved through fall 2025.
This is counterintuitive, but conservatives believe that long-term CR will serve them better in the short term.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has come under fire from other conservatives for working with Democrats on a bipartisan spending plan, and his future as speaker is uncertain depending on the outcome of the presidential election. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)
House members to leave Washington until September as government shutdown deadline looms
The question is what path Johnson will choose.
Johnson drew criticism from conservatives for introducing a slew of short-term spending bills last fall, winter and spring to avoid another government shutdown, and for allowing the Ukraine aid bill to be debated. Let’s not forget that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) lost the gavel last year for merely introducing a short-term spending bill. So Johnson will have to be careful which path he chooses.
But the question of how to fund the government may be entangled with questions about the future of House Republican leadership. It’s hard to imagine Johnson being able to hold off until next year, which would require the support of House Democrats and, of course, the Senate. But let’s say Johnson manages to get through it and win a long-term CR. That would secure government funding and insulate Johnson from political challenges from the right.
The House of Representatives will elect a speaker on January 3, when the new Congress begins. First, Republicans must gain a majority. If former President Trump wins, that could determine whether Johnson or someone else becomes speaker. But what if the Democrats win the House and Vice President Harris wins? Will Johnson become minority leader?
The past may be a prologue to the future. How Johnson handles Congress after McCarthy may determine his future. That said, becoming Speaker is harder than becoming Minority Leader. To become Speaker, Johnson or anyone else, needs a majority of the entire House (Democratic and Republican voters) — a tall hurdle. But to become Minority Leader, a simple majority of the respective conference or caucus is enough. That race is not decided on the floor.
Parliament returns to session on September 9. The government’s funding plan must be agreed by October 1. (Aaron Schwartz/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Either way, even if some conservatives disagree with Johnson’s approach to government funding, they have no appetite for another long leadership battle. Many House Republicans suffer from “PTSD” — or, as they say in Congress, “post-traumatic speech disorder.” So while some conservatives may not fully accept Johnson’s decision, they have no appetite for getting embroiled in another battle over who will lead the House Republicans.
Moreover, the tactics of the right and the Freedom Caucus have worn down rank-and-file Republicans and Republicans on the Appropriations Committee. Many Republicans point to divisions within the party over the Freedom Caucus’ approach. One senior Republican appropriation official noted that Freedom Caucus members may not support whatever spending plan Republican leaders come up with because they are against almost everything. So they’re not going to give in to the right.
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Some Republicans are trying to tie the election integrity bill to a stopgap spending bill. The plan would ban foreigners from voting in federal elections, something that is already illegal. Senate Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-Wash.) called the election bill demands a “political scare tactic” and a “poison pill.”
Similar to their criticism of McCarthy, conservatives are outraged that Johnson has “worked with the Democrats” or “worked with the Senate.” Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia tried to strip Johnson of his position as speaker earlier this year for forging a bipartisan spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). The outcome of the election will determine how much influence a voice like Greene’s will have.
But Congress must figure out how to avoid a government shutdown before the election, and lawmakers, the new president and even the new president will likely fight the consequences of those decisions in litigation later this year and early next.
