Changes in College Basketball Freshmen Landscape

One surprising result of the NIL and transfer portal era in college basketball is that the significance of “superstar freshmen” has decreased.

Looking back just three seasons, the team that made it past the Sweet 16 featured only one freshman in the top 100 of their class—Donovan Klingan, who didn’t play much for UConn but ended up being a national champion. That season, the only true freshman in the national scoring rankings was Alabama’s Brandon Miller, who also ranked in the top 100.

Fast forward to 2024, and only one true freshman was among the 20 starting players in the Final Four—Stefon Castle, who played a role in helping Connecticut achieve back-to-back goals.

Sure, there are exceptions. Take Cooper Flag, for instance. He won the Wood Award last season, guiding Duke to the Final Four. Flag is projected to go first overall in the summer NBA Draft, standing out noticeably from other non-Duke freshmen in the selection process.

Also notable are the top-five picks from the recent drafts. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey had impactful seasons at Rutgers, but the team finished just 15-17. VJ Edgecom, picked third overall, was the second-leading scorer for a Baylor squad that barely made the NCAA Tournament but fell to Duke. The sixth pick, Tre Johnson, played for Texas, which suffered a rough season, finishing with 16 losses including a first-round exit against Xavier. Other top picks like Colin Murray Boyles, Cedric Coward, and Thomas Thorber played for teams that didn’t reach the NCAA Tournament.

The diminishing influence of freshmen since the “get it once and finish” era can be attributed to a couple of key factors:

• Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic prompted changes in eligibility rules, allowing older players to remain in college longer. Now, a seasoned 24-year-old with six years of experience often outshines an inexperienced 18-year-old freshman. Coaches quickly adapted their strategies to take this into account.
• Secondly, the recent crop of recruiting classes hasn’t been as strong overall. While standout players like Flag and Miller emerged, the depth beneath them hasn’t matched previous years.

It might be too early to label the 2025-26 college basketball season as “Freshman Year,” but there’s a strong belief that this new wave of freshmen could significantly reshape the sport.

Interestingly, even professionals in the field find these shifts intriguing. The top freshmen are poised to become some of the most popular players in the league.

Many scouting services have ranked AJ Divanza as the best player in the 2025 class. He received MVP honors at the FIBA U19 World Cup and has been a top contender in mock NBA drafts. There’s buzz surrounding BYU as they heavily invest in high-profile recruits, making 2025-26 a highly anticipated season for the program, currently ranked in the top 25.

If Divanza doesn’t go first in the NBA Draft, the standout from Kansas, Darryn Peterson, is expected to contend for that spot. Bill Self, the Hall of Fame coach, has labeled Peterson as “the best freshman I’ve ever hired,” which is a huge endorsement considering the talent at Kansas over the years.

And what about Duke? After a year of selecting a freshman trio in the top 10 of the NBA Draft, John Shire is once again bringing in a strong class that many believe could compete for the national player of the year title.

Cameron Boozer, the son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, joins Duke after an exceptional high school career, winning multiple championships and awards. Alongside him is his twin brother Kaden, who will likely be asked to contribute as significantly as Cooper Flag did last season.

For those looking for an exciting offense in college basketball, Louisville might be the place to watch. With Pat Kelsey at the helm, the Cardinals boast a lineup of versatile scorers that could rival the fastest-paced teams in the nation, led by freshman point guard Mikel Brown Jr. After a stellar performance at the FIBA U19 World Cup, Brown is expected to be crucial to Louisville’s aspirations.

Meanwhile, in Knoxville, freshmen like Nate Ament are making headlines in practice, showcasing their skills. The 6-foot-9 prospect will likely play a pivotal role for Tennessee this season.

This trend of promising freshmen seems set to continue, with players like Caleb Wilson at North Carolina, Darius Akaf at Arkansas, Chris Sennak Jr. at Houston, and Core Pete at Arizona anticipated to make major contributions during this winter’s season.

These young athletes aren’t just showing promise; they’re prepared to reinvigorate college basketball this season.