In the February 2, 2026 episode of the *morning filter* Podcast, hosts Dave Sekera and Susan Dziubinski delve into the current sentiment surrounding the US dollar and highlight which indicators are vital for investors to monitor.
Should investors be worried about a weaker US dollar?
Dziubinski: Let’s discuss the state of the US dollar. It hit its lowest point last week since 2022. How should investors react to this decline?
Sekera: I think it’s something to watch, but I’m not overly concerned at this stage. There are certainly sensational headlines out there that sound alarms. However, I believe this drop doesn’t truly reflect a lack of confidence from foreign investors in the dollar. It hasn’t altered our equity research team’s long-term outlook either. For investors, I recommend tracking the DEXI and DXY indices. First, analyze the short-term charts from the past year. While it seems to be decreasing from a high in 2024, it’s actually been fluctuating within a range since last April. Right now, we’re at the lower end of that range, and yes, we might dip slightly more. Still, it’s not like it’s crashing. Now, if we examine the five-year chart, it mirrors DEXI’s mid-term view. We’re hovering at levels similar to early 2022 and considerably above the lows of mid-2021.
Lastly, regarding the long-term perspective, looking back from 2003 to 2015, the dollar was notably weaker during that period. When the tech bubble burst in 2001-2002, the dollar was stronger, but that was more about seeking safety. Yes, there’s been a significant drop since then. It’s crucial to remember the context of the 1990s. Thus, considering the long-term view, I’m not particularly alarmed right now. What’s essential is to monitor if this decline intensifies, and also to keep an eye on U.S. Treasuries and interest rates. A spike in rates alongside a dollar decline would raise my concerns significantly.
