The federal government’s ongoing battle against welfare fraud has seen some progress nationwide, though not all states appear to be fully committed to addressing the issue. In 2025, the government managed to recover around $2 billion linked to fraud. However, significant fraudulent activity seems to be concentrated in states where officials may bear some responsibility. It’s pretty clear that this is a serious issue.
The $2 billion figure, while 40 percent higher than in the last year of the Biden administration, isn’t as substantial as many had hoped, according to Peter Schweizer, an investigative journalist. Experts suggest that actual fraud levels are much higher.
Investigators at both state and national levels have repeatedly uncovered issues similar to those found by the Fraud Task Force chaired by Vice President J.D. Vance. A thorough investigation by Schweizer’s organization, the Government Accountability Institute, revealed significant fraud in the SNAP program several years ago. While there’s been much discussion on the various ways fraud occurs, it’s an ongoing concern for many.
To effectively detect fraud, it requires collaboration from states that manage federal welfare funds for their citizens. Since the initiative started, states like Ohio, Indiana, Pennsylvania, and Alabama have significantly outperformed larger states in identifying and prosecuting welfare fraud. Notably, in 2024, Michigan’s Inspector General recouped $1.4 billion in fraudulent claims.
“They reported halting a $6.5 billion fraud scheme in Texas linked to overcharging,” remarked co-host Eric Eggers on a recent episode. “California’s cases might reach $10 billion… These figures only pertain to Medicaid. So, it seems the Trump administration is claiming they are recovering more fraud than before.”
On the other hand, states like California and Minnesota appear to be less thorough. A federal operation identified 1,000 fraudulent hospice applicants, successfully removing them from Medicare. In Minnesota, there are claims that political leaders, including Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, were aware of fraudulent practices in child care and school lunch programs but chose to overlook them to protect certain voting districts.
The low conviction rates in some states don’t stem from a lack of resources for fraud investigations. “California has 270 people dedicated to investigating Medicaid fraud, which seems impressive,” Eggers noted. “But how many indictments can we expect in 2024?”
“In 2024, that number was just 32,” Eggers stated.
In contrast, Democratic-led Pennsylvania achieved 700 investigations with just a quarter of California’s workforce, yielding 113 charges—nearly four times more indictments than California’s much larger team.
“This highlights that there are clear signs of fraud if you’re willing to look. But not every state seems eager to do so,” Eggers added.
Indiana, on the other hand, showed a commitment to tackling fraud with 27 indictments in 2024, relying on a mere 59 employees. “They really seem to be putting in the effort,” Eggers commented. “Ohio had 105 investigators and managed to achieve 69 indictments, which ranks them third after Texas and Arizona.”
Schweizer emphasized that fraud is a pervasive issue. “Fraud investigators believe that as much as 15 to 20 percent of transactions might be fraudulent. This seems to be an accepted part of the system,” he said.
“The fact that some states are managing to prosecute so few individuals amidst millions enrolled in welfare programs suggests they aren’t treating the issue with the seriousness it deserves.”
According to Schweizer, the strategy employed by the Trump administration involved warning states like California that failing to investigate fraud could result in a withholding of funding due to widespread concerns about fraud.
“It’s likely to cost California a significant amount of money.”
The discussion also brought up various Minnesota officials, including Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, known for her connections to significant fraud cases in the state. Schweizer pointed out that the company at the center of the fraud was registered at the same address as a major fraudster.
“Ilhan Omar is essentially just one step removed from this prominent figure. She even appears in a commercial promoting a restaurant tied to a possible fraudster,” Schweizer noted.
Determining the real extent of the problem can take time, but it’s clear that vigilance is required at all levels.
